Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[marceau]

33 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Agree, but even though the gardener will get his 'extra' 20% his cost i.e. fuel etc will have increased proportionally more, so where other professions salaries have matched/increased above inflation, his/her salary in real terms would have taken a 'haircut/reduction. :-(

Have been recently re-reading 'When Money Dies'. The middle class professions were hit the earliest and the hardest. Other than industrialists, landowners, the unionised and outright swindlers very few could stay ahead of inflation. As things became more severe even they failed to keep up.

Of course, in the end, EVERYONE got fucked.  

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Starsend said:

Ok, who are the big nickel miners? Seems to recall Vale mined a fair bit of it.

I've been reading a bit recently about how there could be serious shortages of nickel in the coming years.

That guy in the Palisades interview I posted a little way back was all over it.  On the money.  I looked at it but decided not yet as it was overbought!!!!!

Update:  And a big drop today.  I'm a blooming genius am I! 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

Some more money printing. Are they going to blow your targets out of the water @DurhamBorn?

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/european-currencies-rally-eu-mulls-creation-joint-fund-military-energy

[Noallegiance]

9 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Some more money printing. Are they going to blow your targets out of the water @DurhamBorn?

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/european-currencies-rally-eu-mulls-creation-joint-fund-military-energy

Knee-jerk reaction from me is that they still haven't figured out that selling bonds doesn't produce oil & gas.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

You want a podcast/video to listen to.......

https://palisadesradio.ca/david-murrin-doomsday-bubble-popping-means-metals-will-soar/

Although a good podcast, I've had a read of his Twatter feed and gone off him!

[DurhamBorn]

17 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Some more money printing. Are they going to blow your targets out of the water @DurhamBorn?

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/european-currencies-rally-eu-mulls-creation-joint-fund-military-energy

"to fund energy and defence" for a minute there i got quite excited because we said it 3 years ago ,but then went back to digging holes for my clematis.

 

[DurhamBorn]

Should add here,looking at liquidity etc and stress points i track there is zero chance the dollar is replaced here by China or China/Russia etc.Long end saying curve is fine,looks like debt might be topping out in the US v GDP as well and most of my signals are saying we are starting a credit cycle here not ending one.Inflationary yes of course,but with solid growth,maybe the most since 1984.Watch the liquidity start to enter the economy from money market accounts and loans,velocity will start to move from here,house prices will fall though because CBs will be raising rates into strength.

[dnb24]

19 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

CBs will be raising rates into strength

DB if you don’t mind would be interesting to hear your thought process on this. A number of other people (Napier especially) has hypothesised that despite raising rates they’ll be significantly behind inflation- and so propose house prices rising and not falling. No criticism of your work- it’s been the closer to anything I’ve seen- tbf you could/should produce a quarterly newsletter - your roadmap has been on the money especially compared to Alden/Hunter etc etc

[BurntBread]

24 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Should add here,looking at liquidity etc and stress points i track there is zero chance the dollar is replaced here by China or China/Russia etc.Long end saying curve is fine,looks like debt might be topping out in the US v GDP as well and most of my signals are saying we are starting a credit cycle here not ending one.Inflationary yes of course,but with solid growth,maybe the most since 1984.Watch the liquidity start to enter the economy from money market accounts and loans,velocity will start to move from here,house prices will fall though because CBs will be raising rates into strength.

Speaking out of ignorance DB, but I thought the underlying problem was that the issuer of the global reserve currency no longer dominates world trade, so the exclusive use of the dollar is mostly continuing because of inertia (or coercion).

In that case, forcing Russia/China to create a non-dollar-denominated, parallel, international trade system would be like seeding a crystal in a super-saturated solution, leading to the new financial system growing to reflect natural trade flows. In that picture, it doesn't destroy the dollar-based system, but could become a substantial rival.

There has also been discussion here that Putin might have the power to force the world onto a gold-backed system, by demanding payment for oil & gas in physical gold.

Are you saying that both of those scenarios are unlikely from the point of view of your models? If so, is that because they are both based on the idea that the West is fragile because of debt, but in fact the Western financial system is less fragile than many suppose, as the debt can now be serviced once the new liquidity gets flowing into productive things?

[MrXxxx]

Following on from yesterdays youtube post here is RP's thoughts, although slightly less alarmist...personally I think the most likely outcome is that Ukraine will be the 'sacrificial lamb' to save other countries economies/well being [scenario 1]...

 

[kibuc]

4 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Following on from yesterdays youtube post here is RP's thoughts, although slightly less alarmist...personally I think the most likely outcome is that Ukraine will be the 'sacrificial lamb' to save other countries economies/well being...

 

I think behind all this posturing and muscle flexing in the media, both parties (and I don't mean Ukraine as either of them) are in serious and very business-like discussion about how to end this whole thing, and quick.

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, marceau said:

Have been recently re-reading 'When Money Dies'. The middle class professions were hit the earliest and the hardest. Other than industrialists, landowners, the unionised and outright swindlers very few could stay ahead of inflation. As things became more severe even they failed to keep up.

Of course, in the end, EVERYONE got fucked.  

I think very few ever keep up with inflation as its observed in the 'rear view mirror' i.e. the impact has already been 'felt' when it is accounted for and wage raise applied.

[Democorruptcy]

2 minutes ago, kibuc said:

I think behind all this posturing and muscle flexing in the media, both parties (and I don't mean Ukraine as either of them) are in serious and very business-like discussion about how to end this whole thing, and quick.

That sounds much better than stuff in the media about NATO sending fighter planes to Poland, so they can give theirs to Ukraine!

[MrXxxx]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

That sounds much better than stuff in the media about NATO sending fighter planes to Poland, so they can give theirs to Ukraine!

Do you think Poland would do this? They know what happened the last time they took the allies 'word as their bond'...likewise, do you think Iran are going to agree to Americas 'terms' on nuclear when they see what has just happened/the outcome of the Ukranian's having given up theirs?

[kibuc]

Investing in junior miners is easy and fun.

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Do you think Poland would do this? They know what happened the last time they took the allies 'word as their bond'...likewise, do you think Iran are going to agree to Americas 'terms' on nuclear when they see what has just happened/the outcome of the Ukranian's having given up theirs?

I think it would be very dodgy for Poland (and Europe) but depends if they are really worried about Russia pressing on.

[Bobthebuilder]

7 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I think it would be very dodgy for Poland (and Europe) but depends if they are really worried about Russia pressing on.

My Polish mate tells me the yanks are giving them F16s, so they can give the MIGs away to pilots that are used to flying them.

Topped up my SIPP today, also transferred my cash ISA to HL SSISA.

[MrXxxx]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

I think it would be very dodgy for Poland (and Europe) but depends if they are really worried about Russia pressing on.

Well let's consider they [Russians] do, a) The Poles would need their jets themselves, and b) If they [Poles] did/didn't give their jets, the support given/not given by NATO would be the same...personally I think if they did give their jets and Russia declared war on them NATO would try to find a 'get out'...the united front of NATO participants is just a convenient facade whilst it suits them i.e. the majority have been reluctant to apply sanctions unless really morally obliged ....Germany doesn't even want to give up some gas, let alone going to war!

[Castlevania]

10 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Investing in junior miners is easy and fun.

The Mighty Panther has opened up 25%!

[sancho panza]

On 07/03/2022 at 10:51, moneyscam said:

Well he works for Bloomberg so is expected to stay on script. I think now some of those in various governments that went for the full sanctions package genuinely believed they could influence Putin the way they wanted to and that all the economic cost would fall on Russia and nowhere else.

This morning as the markets unravel I'm sure there are at least a few thinking 'what have we done?'. 

It's fascianting watching this as long as you're not in the Ukraine.I was surprised by the European resposne being so strong and united but as you say, I think they misjudged it.The laughable bit is that they did sanctions but held back from sanctioning gas.Akin to being anti apartheid but still buying kruggerrands as a store of value.

It's one of those cases of be careful what you wish for in that for me,they've had plenty of opportunities to reinforce Ukrainian neutrality outsdie of Nato and the EU but chose not to.

On 07/03/2022 at 11:11, Majorpain said:

You would like to think that the average person on the street would understand that blocking petro exports from 3rd largest exporter, in a tight market at the best of times, would lead to ridiculous spikes in the price of energy.  I don't think that the penny has dropped with most people yet that they are in trouble, no doubt they expect big gov to bail them out again.

Its interesting that despite Euro Gas prices being in stupid territory, nothing has visibly blown up yet.  Regulators are no doubt working overtime keeping traders/companies in dire straights off headline news.  I will be amazed if there is no Lehman moment of toxic energy derivatives bubbling away behind the scenes.

It really is quite stark isn't it? This is what 30/40 years of encouraging the people to believe the govt can jsut magic free stuff out of the air does.

There's 50%++ of the population jsut have zero clue of what these sanctions wil do but will liekly turn tail at the first cold shower.

18 hours ago, moneyscam said:

IMHO absolutely essential viewing below from Peter Zeihan. Matter of fact delivery of the stark reality the globe faces due to the paradigm shift we're undergoing. Once you've heard this and understood the massive implications of what he's saying, you can dismiss DH's melt up as now fantasy and that the BK is on. Worth the half hour watch. It will lead you to horrible conclusions but you'll be better equipped than 99.9% of the people out there to anticipate what is coming and prepare.

I know, rather dramatic, but once you get it you won't forget it.

 

Thought I was a doom monger MS,holy smoly,my Mrs would be impressed with how this guy puts me in the shade

super vid

[Transistor Man]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Although a good podcast, I've had a read of his Twatter feed and gone off him!

An 11 deg C increase in average temperature is already baked in -- quite a claim. I'm not sure I believe that.

[arrow]

11 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

My Polish mate tells me the yanks are giving them F16s, so they can give the MIGs away to pilots that are used to flying them.

Topped up my SIPP today, also transferred my cash ISA to HL SSISA.

Yep, counted on the Yanks doing this. "Giving" their planes to Poland et al. My US defence contractor shares thank Poland et al for accepting this kind gift and the maintenance contracts for x decades.

[arrow]

43 minutes ago, kibuc said:

I think behind all this posturing and muscle flexing in the media, both parties (and I don't mean Ukraine as either of them) are in serious and very business-like discussion about how to end this whole thing, and quick.

Hope you're right, but it's gone too far, I think.

Looks at Polymetal! Looks like Polymetal is headed to its current dividend value or half. If it goes there, Buy it and it's paid off by May

[Democorruptcy]

19 hours ago, moneyscam said:

IMHO absolutely essential viewing below from Peter Zeihan. Matter of fact delivery of the stark reality the globe faces due to the paradigm shift we're undergoing. Once you've heard this and understood the massive implications of what he's saying, you can dismiss DH's melt up as now fantasy and that the BK is on. Worth the half hour watch. It will lead you to horrible conclusions but you'll be better equipped than 99.9% of the people out there to anticipate what is coming and prepare.

I know, rather dramatic, but once you get it you won't forget it.

 

The big loser in that is China. Are they really supposed to be just sleepwalking to disaster? The EU needs resources from Russia but if they are split apart, then China gets them instead?

[DoINeedOne]

Could be worse was reading a report a year or so ago on JustEat there’s a fund Cat Rock Capital that had something like 32% of their fund in JustEat

I could never get my head around the model of JustEat with all the competition so decided to not look into it any more thank fuck