Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

That’s my marker or should I say hope. If Putin takes Ukraine (and he will) but then proceeds to move further on to other countries then we are fucked. But that’s what exactly I expect him to do.

I have had that constant unsettled feeling for months now since the end of covid of what was what coming next, because they sure as hell hadn’t come this far to reverse back to pre 2020 now.

https://time.com/collection/great-reset/5900739/fix-economy-by-2023/

Again food shortages nicely laid out in the plan for 2022. Looks like another tick box for the article that so far called the election, vaccine and protests despite being written in October 2020.

 

I'm hoping the Russian generals and the oligarchs were never fully onboard with the invasion. Could explain the woeful military campaign, and also provide scope for Putin to be 'replaced'? 

[moneyscam]

Good summary below of how the world has changed forever.

 

 

 

 

Simon Mikhailovich

 

@S_Mikhailovich

·

13h

 

Replying to

@S_Mikhailovich

RIP world peace: Ukrainian war is not about Ukraine; it is a full blown Russian-American war. Whether it stays hot or cools off, the rupture we are observing in real time is irreparable. New battle lines have been drawn for decades to come.

 

 

 

RIP nuclear security: All sides understand the risk of mutually assured destruction and, hopefully, will never use the nukes. Unfortunately, history is filled with devastating wars that got started due to mistakes, miscalculations & misunderstandings.

 

 

RIP globalization: Radical de-globalization of supply chains & international relations has started. Geopolitical implications are historic & financial costs are already incalculable.

 

 

RIP global internet: W/numerous online services voluntarily de-platforming Russians &/or being banned by Russia, we are watching cardinal disruption of global connectivity, free information flow & global digital commerce.

 

RIP the rule of law: Canada's freeze of fin accts/wallets & confiscation of Russian gov & private assets undermined the foundation of Western law & finance - pres. of innocence, due process, basic property rights, etc. We took a wrecking ball to the trust in our system.

 

RIP international intellectual property rights: How does an information/high tech-based economy prosper w/out ability to enforce international laws on software licencing, patent protection & other intellectual property rights?

 

RIP food & energy security: It will take years to reorganize the world into self-sufficient regions w/secure energy & food supplies. In the meantime, expect much higher costs & unreliable supply for a whole lot of stuff we used to take for granted.

 

Each of these "ruptures" will have 2nd & 3rd order effects whose extent & financial impact are as yet unknown. And what will China & others do about all this? Count on it, they will do something & it won't be cost-free. We had a really good thing goin'... What a pity...

[reformed nice guy]

4 hours ago, belfastchild said:

Completely random this one but thought I'd share as its been bothering me.

I have a 3 mile walk i do at home some evenings. It uses the main road near the town.

Since lockdown ive noticed a few of the big roadside houses getting bought by gypos/pikeys. Horses heads on the gatepost, caravans on the drive, tarmac lorries out the back sort of thing.

At the weekend I noticed that all 4 or so of these houses had new garden walls. All about 2m high (fuck planning). These were substantial, not brick laid vertically with piers bit breeze block laid flat  sometimes laid flat on end so quite thick and deep. All on various forms of completion.

Don't know what I'm trying to say here but the gypos seem to be circling the wagons.

They know that if there is an societal strife that they have decades of revenge to try and survive!

[Harley]

You want a podcast/video to listen to.......

https://palisadesradio.ca/david-murrin-doomsday-bubble-popping-means-metals-will-soar/

[JMD]

2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Everyday for the past couple weeks the DOCTOR who ever he is has been withdrawing hundreds of kilos of physical Gold and Silver as well as significant amounts of Platinum from Bullionvault.

This person or organisation seems pretty desperate to get hold of their Metal, the costs of withdrawing it from Bullionvault must be eye-watering plus there will be VAT on top for the Silver and Platinum.

Putin has a PhD!!       ...Oh, and his dissertation was in commodity resources in the Russian economy, just saying!!                                                                                              https://www.theatlantic.com/daily-dish/archive/2008/08/putins-thesis-raw-text/212739/

[Noallegiance]

5 minutes ago, Harley said:

You want a podcast/video to listen to.......

https://palisadesradio.ca/david-murrin-doomsday-bubble-popping-means-metals-will-soar/

I listened earlier.

 

Grim and upbeat. Not quite in equal measure!

Grim 7 - 3 Upbeat

3 minutes ago, JMD said:

Putin has a PhD!!       ...Oh, and his dissertation was in commodity resources in the Russian economy, just saying!!                                                                                              https://www.theatlantic.com/daily-dish/archive/2008/08/putins-thesis-raw-text/212739/

Old school diamond hand.

[reformed nice guy]

17 minutes ago, moneyscam said:

Good summary below of how the world has changed forever.

 

 

RIP world peace

RIP nuclear security

RIP globalization

RIP global internet

RIP the rule of law

RIP international intellectual property rights

RIP food & energy security

[JimmyTheBruce]

46 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

lloyds will sell me and quote evr and poly, just tried it, didnt buy it though, not worth the bother for the cash i have in there

(£55), but they quoted and offered rather than yesterdays negotiated shite.

Flogged off BASF at a loss, hit my limit, deployed the money into HUKERSNCOKE.com for the win.

 

Mind me asking why you're selling BASF?  I was looking to get an entry soon given the price has dropped.  Good financials, dividend, and chemicals come quite early on in the value chain.

Are you expecting it to fall further?  Can't remember what the guys name is, but he bases his calls on chemicals and says they are an early indicator of recession.

[Harley]

17 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I listened earlier.

 

Grim and upbeat. Not quite in equal measure!

Grim 7 - 3 Upbeat

Old school diamond hand.

Says stuff in terms I use - systems' theory, rebirth, linear thought, non-linear thought, lateral thought.  That's the Russian doll (forgive the pun) of macro within macro.  I disagree with what he concludes the West should do because I need to but also because I think he missed joining up an extra dot.  Yes, the UK could go non-linear (if we nullified the linear power), by building relationships across the coming divides, etc.  So yes Boris is as linear as straight can be and is therefore our new Chamberlain.  He's blown so many opportunities to be great.  Handed to him on a plate and too fecked to see.  Not so much against a yin threat but against the yang opportunity.  Anyways, back to business.  Some IMO sound financial stuff to consider.

[MrXxxx]

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2022/03/02/polymetal-suspends-cost-guidance-but-keeps-dividend/

QUOTE:

"A spokesperson for the company said there had been no indications from Euroclear, the company that handles the distributions, that the 2021 final dividend payment could not go ahead, although chief executive Vitaly Nesis said Polymetal would reserve the right to suspend or cancel the payout should conditions change."

[Heart's Ease]

8 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

Mind me asking why you're selling BASF?  I was looking to get an entry soon given the price has dropped.  Good financials, dividend, and chemicals come quite early on in the value chain.

Are you expecting it to fall further?  Can't remember what the guys name is, but he bases his calls on chemicals and says they are an early indicator of recession.

I have had basf on my bk list. Got to around €47 in March 2020 but I did not buy. Picked up first ladder at €48 something today. Agree with your comment about position in the value chain (increasing price of chemicals is something @SillyBillyhas helpfully reported on here and elsewhere). Lth.

@reformed nice guywas also sniffing around basf and waiting for it to hit €50 iirc.

[leonardratso]

9 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

Mind me asking why you're selling BASF?  I was looking to get an entry soon given the price has dropped.  Good financials, dividend, and chemicals come quite early on in the value chain.

Are you expecting it to fall further?  Can't remember what the guys name is, but he bases his calls on chemicals and says they are an early indicator of recession.

was building a position but i have a rule that says i dont stay too long if its on a downer, i might go back in lower, but it went down 27% and just kept falling, i usually just wait it out and DCA down on those things if i believe it will recover, or i stop buying and wait for it to recover, but others look a better bet at the moment and this is in an ISA so my input is limited to the yearly limit. No real reason to be honest, i just saw better thngs going on so i jumped. Wasnt a huge amount.

Ive been in BASF before and it did alright but wasnt exactly blistering. No doubt ill be back.

 

[Starsend]

13 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Sad day today, we sacked our gardener when he put his prices up 20%

 

He's trying to backtrack now but i suspect most of the pensioners he works for have told him to do one

 

I think a lot of people are about to find out what money actually is 

 

I feel a little sorry for him. If he doesn't get that increase then he's working for less than he was last year. I'm seeing every fucker put their prices up, some with more success than others. 10% might have been smarter though rather than 20% in one go. 

One of my son's is a tree surgeon, he's had some success putting his costs up but is still just breaking even as he uses a lot of diesel and a lot of equipment all of which has rocketed in price.

[Starsend]

4 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

More from Javier regarding nickel 

And the following for context which he retweeted

 

Ok, who are the big nickel miners? Seems to recall Vale mined a fair bit of it.

I've been reading a bit recently about how there could be serious shortages of nickel in the coming years.

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, Pip321 said:

I know it’s ‘time in the market’ but for me there is no an element of timing this market. I a happier paying 15% up from the bottom rather than buying in an losing big time. I guess that’s what the ladders is all about.

Wise words, as long as its not a DCB.

[leonardratso]

3 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Ok, who are the big nickel miners? Seems to recall Vale mined a fair bit of it.

I've been reading a bit recently about how there could be serious shortages of nickel in the coming years.

 

Ive had some HZM for quite a while, they do well but also fall well.

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, RWJ said:

Higher than I thought it would be, however much of it relies on fertiliser with the inputs sourced mainly from Putin's playground.

The UK imports roughly 50% of its ammonium nitrate, with 75% of imports for fertiliser use coming from the EU (primarily from Lithuania, Poland, and the Netherlands) and the remaining 25% from Georgia and Russia.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/united-kingdom-food-security-report-2021/united-kingdom-food-security-report-2021-theme-2-uk-food-supply-sources

Well if food becomes more expensive a) the number of BOGOF will reduce and b) we will learn not to waste it; 30-50% in UK alone...this 25% will be saved [https://www.imeche.org/docs/default-source/reports/Global_Food_Report.pdf?sfvrsn=0].

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, MrXxxx said:

Well if food becomes more expensive a) the number of BOGOF will reduce and b) we will learn not to waste it; 30-50% in UK alone...this 25% will be saved [https://www.imeche.org/docs/default-source/reports/Global_Food_Report.pdf?sfvrsn=0].

come october, or so guy in co-op and sainsburys (local mini marts) tell me, they arent going to be allowed to put unhealthy food on offer anymore by law apparently, so no more of those packets of penguins for £1 or offers on pringles going half price to shift stock to make room. Although whats considered unhealthy ive no idea - well, some obvious, but for example snicker bars, can they be classed as junk? maybe, maybe not so bad as crap like biscuits.

[Starsend]

1 hour ago, reformed nice guy said:

They know that if there is an societal strife that they have decades of revenge to try and survive!

Yeah see how they like it when the boot's on the other foot, when it's their lawnmower getting nicked.

[MrXxxx]

40 minutes ago, Starsend said:

I feel a little sorry for him. If he doesn't get that increase then he's working for less than he was last year. I'm seeing every fucker put their prices up, some with more success than others. 10% might have been smarter though rather than 20% in one go. 

One of my son's is a tree surgeon, he's had some success putting his costs up but is still just breaking even as he uses a lot of diesel and a lot of equipment all of which has rocketed in price.

Being able to put up your prices with/above inflation the same as others is not a 'God given right' [no offence meant], it is simply a reflection of how essential others view your services i.e. middle of Winter a tree falls down in my garden, as long as its not obstructing/damaging anything its not an issue I can wait until its Summer/I can afford it, BUT if my boiler packs up I have to have it fixed now.....likewise with car mechanics vs painters/decorators etc. The moral of the story, get a profession that people need immediately and cannot live without, whether its being a Doctor or a Plumber/Heating Engineer.

[Noallegiance]

35 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Ok, who are the big nickel miners? Seems to recall Vale mined a fair bit of it.

I've been reading a bit recently about how there could be serious shortages of nickel in the coming years.

Vale go XD tomorrow 

[MrXxxx]

22 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

come october, or so guy in co-op and sainsburys (local mini marts) tell me, they arent going to be allowed to put unhealthy food on offer anymore by law apparently, so no more of those packets of penguins for £1 or offers on pringles going half price to shift stock to make room. Although whats considered unhealthy ive no idea - well, some obvious, but for example snicker bars, can they be classed as junk? maybe, maybe not so bad as crap like biscuits.

So looks as though the UK beaches/population are in for a change next year from:

to

[Starsend]

5 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Being able to put up your prices with/above inflation the same as others is not a 'God given right' [no offence meant], it is simply a reflection of how essential others view your services i.e. middle of Winter a tree falls down in my garden, as long as its not obstructing/damaging anything its not an issue I can wait until its Summer/I can afford it, BUT if my boiler packs up I have to have it fixed now.....likewise with car mechanics vs painters/decorators etc. The moral of the story, get a profession that people need immediately and cannot live without, whether its being a Doctor or a Plumber/Heating Engineer.

Don't disagree with that, very little in life is a God given right. Some people are going to have to find ways to 'adjust' in a high inflation economy, many will suffer, many businesses will disappear as the figures no longer add up.

The gardener will probably get his 20% - eventually. The problem for many is that wages lag price rises by some distance so they've got to try and survive in the meantime.

[MrXxxx]

1 minute ago, Starsend said:

Don't disagree with that, very little in life is a God given right. Some people are going to have to find ways to 'adjust' in a high inflation economy, many will suffer, many businesses will disappear as the figures no longer add up.

The gardener will probably get his 20% - eventually. The problem for many is that wages lag price rises by some distance so they've got to try and survive in the meantime.

Agree, but even though the gardener will get his 'extra' 20% his cost i.e. fuel etc will have increased proportionally more, so where other professions salaries have matched/increased above inflation, his/her salary in real terms would have taken a 'haircut/reduction. :-(

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

I feel a little sorry for him. If he doesn't get that increase then he's working for less than he was last year. I'm seeing every fucker put their prices up, some with more success than others. 10% might have been smarter though rather than 20% in one go. 

One of my son's is a tree surgeon, he's had some success putting his costs up but is still just breaking even as he uses a lot of diesel and a lot of equipment all of which has rocketed in price.

That’s why I’ve said from the beginning it will be stagflation. Wage inflation won’t be equal across the board. There will be specialist jobs (divorce lawyers, engineers etc) that can name their asking price along with inflation.

Construction workers/builders ‘think’ they can (no offence to anyone here of course) but when the housing market turns, the work drying up will be brutal.

Minimum wage workers will bear the brunt. Restaurants, factories, businesses leeching off cheap labour throughout the disinflation cycle are now going to learn a very harsh lesson in finding a balance between charging/paying fair prices, retaining custom, or losing staff and going under through debt.