Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

15 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Yep. I really can't understand how Oil & Gas shares are losing around another 3% today given what's going on with no one able to by Russian stuff and the tightness of supply

The market loves to feck smart people.  It just can't help itself.  But it's a right gossip, right there in the price.  Narrative lovers beware.

[HousePriceMania]

It's the doggy break out

 

[Democorruptcy]

2 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

There are some FTSE 100 shares out there today which followed the ethos of this thread and had seen some real growth are now back already to March 2020 prices. Imperial Brands seems to be a really good example.

I am finding myself using March 2020 as a benchmark. I know I should look wider. 

Some others are still a way up from March 2020 due to 30% increases over the past couple of months eg BAT.

BP, Rio etc are higher than March 2020 but so are the commodities that underpin them so that’s expected.   

Certainly no recommendation and not very scientific but I think Imperial are now in my sights. I would prefer BAT and it’s higher yield but imperial has the lower P/E and hopefully based on my random date selection may have more upside. Long term investment looks better that inflation devoured cash. 

I think we all agree on the types of shares but just wondered if any others starting to fall into peoples radar for similar reasons. Or whether my thought process is just too naive.  

A lot of my price targets had been hit so I was selling in Feb. I didn't hold any IMB to sell and have now bought some though I might have gone in too early because things look increasingly negative. I did a search on the word "Russia" in the BATS and IMB latest annual reports and it seemed IMB had exited stuff there. Though IMB seems to be doing worse than BATS. I've bought some BATS back as well. Although I initially felt uncomfortable buying fags, I've realised I feel more uncomfortable not holding any.

[Harley]

2 minutes ago, nirvana said:

BlackCock are the second biggest set o cunts on the planet after the FED 

they could well have 'bought' the shares to use em for devious shorting stuff......

Ah, as I mentioned earlier!  Indeed.  Usually ETFs provide an ample supply via their lending out of their shares but........!

[HousePriceMania]

19 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Yep. I really can't understand how Oil & Gas shares are losing around another 3% today given what's going on with no one able to by Russian stuff and the tightness of supply

As I said yesterday. Apple lose 300 million potential customers and their share price went up.

This game is rigged.

[kibuc]

7 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

I thought Blackrock doubled their holding in Poly this week?

They did on the 25th, although the decision surely has been taken before that date.

Then again, Poly and Evraz are considered "UK" shares on LSE, as per Grauniad article linked yesterday, and are not included on the list of 27 or so stopped Russian stocks... for now. Perhaps Blackrock sees them the same way.

[Pip321]

19 minutes ago, Sidd said:

So i sold out this morning on Evraz and poly. I made a loss of 6k between Evraz and Poly (mitigated by similar gains elsewhere). Nonetheless it was the worst short term decision i made in hindsight and it could likely go back up in the months and years to come but i prefer sleeping peacefully at night and not worrying about small things.

Feel your pain.

I bailed on on poly and got out with a £9 profit🤦🏻‍♂️. I bought before the wider speculation (because it was a solid gold miner, heavily recommended, dividends etc) and sold when things started kicking off. And I realised how happy I was not watching the news for all the wrong reasons.

Stupidly I then bought back in at an average of £5.50, and am down about £5k. Seems daft to buy back in but the amount I had held and the price I had paid originally just filled me with so much relief I was glad to have been out when they had fallen. Ridiculous investment physiology i know. 

For me it’s a relatively small amount because I had set aside a big chunk of money to start investing. I stuck with laddering 1500 shares and I know that could have easily been 5 times that. 

I am glad I bailed when I had a big holding so because of that I am hanging in an may lose the remaining £3k.

Also in my daft way of thinking I sold some Unilever for a little profit but more importantly if I had held would have also lost £4K….so I am pleased for ‘saving’ that loss. 

So other than some daft Lloyds shares I have held for years I am sticking to bigger investments ie £20/£25k x 3 or 4 in dividend generating shares hold over 5/10 years to beat cash. Now just picking them….and will start laddering down.

The bulk of my pennies will stay in funds (which follow the formula of value investing)….so when they plummet and also have all the costs added at least I can blame them and not myself🤦🏻‍♂️

[nirvana]

7 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

No sure what hookers you use but I'm not sure my £12 profit will get me much.

 

[Harley]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

It's the doggy break out

 

Thanks.  I opened a position yesterday and then that (nice) guy on the Palisades interview was kind of dissing the stuff.  I trust the price 'cause that's me business, not narratives and stuff.  The price will tell me when he's right.

[Noallegiance]

22 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Yep. I really can't understand how Oil & Gas shares are losing around another 3% today given what's going on with no one able to by Russian stuff and the tightness of supply

Look alright to me since Oct 20.

Let's not fox ourselves by thinking sollid div payer stocks should behave like shitcoins.

[Harley]

4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

It's the doggy break out

 

Is that the famous St Bernhard chart formation you've drawn there?

[Alifelessbinary]

8 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Just noticed my oil shares plunged about 4% across the board with oil prices going up, what happened ?

 

If the oil price collapses suddenly, what do people think will happen the share prices, BP etc still no where near their 2019 highs in reality while Exxon is way past that level

You’ll have to make your own call on this. I’ve been over weight oil in my portfolio and managed to ladder down during 2020 so I’m now happy to leave these shares churning out dividends for the next 10 years.

Oil now makes up 10% of my portfolio and is happily churning out dividends to protect me from inflation. I see capital growth as a bonus.

I use the Guinness fund mentioned previously to provide diversity (the OCF is high but the diversification has offset this for now). I also own individual shares predominantly in BP and Shell.

I never brought into the ESG narrative and this thread helps me invest for the long term. I very rarely buy individual shares I manage my money through asset allocation.

 

10% gold (physical and miners)

10% commodities 

10% tech 

50% passive equities (slightly overweight UK)

7.5% cash

2.5% high risk 

I got rid of my bonds allocation and swooped it for gold, commods and cash. This is very much based on my own investment criteria.

[Calcutta]

Left a few quid in FRES and the oil companies. All my hedges and sensible investments are gone now. It's a bloodbath. 

Oh yeah and IAG, but that's not really an investment, more of a massive gamble with my children's future and it's not going to go much further down than my average unless it goes bankrupt, so I ignore that for now. 

Sitting it out today. There's bargains but I don't want to holding anything going into Monday. 

Right now the only investment I'm working on is trying to decide if its worth burning a load of £1.50 diesel driving to Lutterworth and buying Jerry cans. 

[M S E Refugee]

Russia halts payments on bonds, shares to foreigners https://www.rt.com/business/551073-russia-halts-payments-bonds/

I take it we won't receive our Poly dividends.

[HousePriceMania]

1 minute ago, M S E Refugee said:

Russia halts payments on bonds, shares to foreigners https://www.rt.com/business/551073-russia-halts-payments-bonds/

I take it we won't receive our Poly dividends.

And if they are UK registered ?

5 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

Left a few quid in FRES and the oil companies. All my hedges and sensible investments are gone now. It's a bloodbath. 

Oh yeah and IAG, but that's not really an investment, more of a massive gamble with my children's future and it's not going to go much further down than my average unless it goes bankrupt, so I ignore that for now. 

Sitting it out today. There's bargains but I don't want to holding anything going into Monday. 

Right now the only investment I'm working on is trying to decide if its worth burning a load of £1.50 diesel driving to Lutterworth and buying Jerry cans. 

What happens on Monday ? 

[M S E Refugee]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

And if they are UK registered ?

I've no idea!

[HousePriceMania]

30 minutes ago, nirvana said:

 

I'm up £20 so I could probably get to see her tits now.

[kibuc]

4 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Russia halts payments on bonds, shares to foreigners https://www.rt.com/business/551073-russia-halts-payments-bonds/

I take it we won't receive our Poly dividends.

Not a Russian company.

[Loki]

Poly up 26%?

[HousePriceMania]

4 minutes ago, Loki said:

Poly up 26%?

10 x 0 = 0.

[HousePriceMania]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/blackrock-back-tracks-after-polymetal-deal-7m0t5cd70

 

The world’s largest asset manager has barred its investors from buying any more Russian securities, after it was criticised by campaigners for its response to the invasion of Ukraine.

 

[geordie_lurch]

Posting another link to John Paul's blog via his latest post here as he seems to really see the larger macro picture between everything and mentions stuff like the following which there's no way I would have read about elsewhere

His thoughts on the above

"If you are the common person, or normal analyst, you will find 16 different excuses to interpret this event, besides the real reason. The Hybrid reason. Besides the obvious angle of being irritated with Mike Pompeo visit, China has been clearly testing the water.

Measuring not only the cascade effects on response and infrastructure, but sentiment, network, communications. This isn’t a coincidence, but a signal, I don’t expect China to invade Taiwan soon, but this is clearly a sign. In my personal opinion, the sooner, the better for them, but I would expect they want more assurance and need to set more pieces on the board to do it."

[belfastchild]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

Poly up 26%?

only another 226 to go ;-) Come on, do a drax or better still mosaic!

 

11 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

Right now the only investment I'm working on is trying to decide if its worth burning a load of £1.50 diesel driving to Lutterworth and buying Jerry cans. 

Do you really have to think about it? Not wanting to influence you or anything but theres a developing shortage of home heating oil here in NI. The suppliers who have stock are limiting it to 300l per customer to make sure anyone who runs out gets some. Of course when they put that out on a local newspaper website and put it on Facebook it was self perpetuating.

Did hear a couple of cash machines in NW england ran out of money yesterday but Ive no idea if thats normal for just after payday or not.

[Lightscribe]

https://www.reuters.com/world/saudi-crown-prince-says-kingdom-could-reduce-us-investments-spa-2022-03-03/

The west can sanction whatever they like, but it’s no good if they’re effectively split off from the rest of the world, with a dying dollar and nothing to show for it.

Perfect timing from the ‘Art of War’ playbook. China and Russia together could effectively end the Petrodollar.

 

[Bus Stop Boxer]

1 minute ago, Lightscribe said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/saudi-crown-prince-says-kingdom-could-reduce-us-investments-spa-2022-03-03/

The west can sanction whatever they like, but it’s no good if they’re effectively split off from the rest of the world, with a dying dollar and nothing to show for it.

Perfect timing from the ‘Art of War’ playbook. China and Russia together could effectively end the Petrodollar.

 

So how long before physical gold is confiscated in the UK "for our own protection"?