Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Viceroy]

Armstrong forecasts wheat futures currently at 11 will go to 29

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

They'll never lease a plane again. They haven't thought that through. They'll be flying bangers around the sky like Iran, just when they were getting somewhere.

I once got an Aeroflot IIllushyin 96 from Shannon to Cuba. There was a dodgy travel agent above a shop in Dublin who looked like Lovejoy who realised there was an angle to sell direct flights to Cuba from Ireland as they stopped there to refuel, and he'd book a few seats for nothing. So off we went, I didn't go into the details with the girlfriend. We got on around 4am at Shannon. This was 2004 or so, but there were cats on ladies laps, a poker game was going on at the back in the floor area by the toilets, and the boys were smoking cigars. The trolley dolly looked like Ivan Drago and the fecking cabin had chandeliers. And 70s wall pattern. All of the above is true, that's what it was like a few short years ago, in Putin's early reign. And it's going back there.

Idiots.

You say Russian economy could be set back 50 years by its leader?... Funny thing is that I've been wondering this past week about just that type of risk for Russia, inflicted upon its people by their once popular and unassailable leader, and how throughout history has that particular scenario invariably played out?                                                                                                                                         ...Personally I'm clinging in hope to the recent strange(?) thoughts of Lord Dr David Owen - he thinks Putin is addicted to steroids, hence the aggressive behaviours and the puffy face (water retention). Ok it's a very long distance medical diagnosis made by the good doctor, but if true I predict that Putin may soon be struck down by a new covid variant!! After all the Russian security forces do seem to like their exotic poisons.             

[Gin]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

You say Russian economy could be set back 50 years by its leader?... Funny thing is that I've been wondering this past week about just that type of risk for Russia, inflicted upon its people by their once popular and unassailable leader, and how throughout history has that particular scenario invariably played out?                                                                                                                                         ...Personally I'm clinging in hope to the recent strange(?) thoughts of Lord Dr David Owen - he thinks Putin is addicted to steroids, hence the aggressive behaviours and the puffy face (water retention). Ok it's a very long distance medical diagnosis made by the good doctor, but if true I predict that Putin may soon be struck down by a new covid variant!! After all the Russian security forces do seem to like their exotic poisons.             

It is funny but my nick name for Putin is Putty Face.

I can`t be the only one who has noticed how strange Putins face looks of late .

He will be taking Mercury next , only it will be the same method as when geese are force fed grain .

[Harley]

6 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Just noticed my oil shares plunged about 4% across the board with oil prices going up, what happened ?

 

If the oil price collapses suddenly, what do people think will happen the share prices, BP etc still no where near their 2019 highs in reality while Exxon is way past that level

Maybe they are resuming a well noted correction that had temporarily been halted.  Could be a healthy correction, or not!

[Harley]

3 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

Wheat futures have rocketed...

https://www.investing.com/commodities/us-wheat

Yes, I was annoyingly a day late to bag the first 16%.  The Ukraine crisis has implications for certain commodities iver the existing drivers.  Sorted now with a nascent commodity portfolio.  The charts tend to look stretched, until you zoom out and see the historical perspective.

[nirvana]

7 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Just noticed my oil shares plunged about 4% across the board with oil prices going up, what happened ?

 

If the oil price collapses suddenly, what do people think will happen the share prices, BP etc still no where near their 2019 highs in reality while Exxon is way past that level

there's a bear market going on dude.......this could be the BK?? 

probs being a bit dramatic there but I'm hearing stagflation is here and then.......RECESSION!!!!!

I guess it's all eyes on the cunts at the FED.......again 

[nirvana]

4 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

Wheat futures have rocketed...

https://www.investing.com/commodities/us-wheat

apparently a quarter of the worlds grain trade comes from Russia and Ukraine!!!!

We're about to get ROYALLY FUKKED with food inflation now on top of everything else.......think I might need to go hunting for supplies again at the weekend 

AND I recommend servicing your pushbikes 

[nirvana]

[jamtomorrow]

16 minutes ago, nirvana said:

AND I recommend servicing your pushbikes

If there's one thing you need to know about looking after a bike for daily use, it's "look after your drivetrain". Because once you're taking it out daily in all weathers, it'll get hammered to f*ck by road grit. Get a good stainless chain with a quicklink, pop it off religiously once per week, degrease the chain the chainring the cassette and the jockey wheels, wash it, dry it, put it back on, lube it.

On the plus side, the snowflakes of *all* generations are about to get a very real education in hardship once personal transport for personal use slips out of reach economically.

Too fat and lazy to cycle 10 miles to work? Don't fancy the whether today? Best hope there's a bus then.

[Green Devil]

44 minutes ago, nirvana said:

there's a bear market going on dude.......this could be the BK?? 

probs being a bit dramatic there but I'm hearing stagflation is here and then.......RECESSION!!!!!

I guess it's all eyes on the cunts at the FED.......again 

End of cycle always ends in wars. You cant fight wars with a money printer. You need people that are willing to fight, supplies of raw materials and energy, not a failing currency, thats being inflated away. 

[nirvana]

2 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

End of cycle always ends in wars. You cant fight wars with a money printer. You need people that are willing to fight, supplies of raw materials and energy, not a failing currency, thats being inflated away. 

well I have been saying for years history repeats and the fascists at the FED have created another 'Weimar Republic'....

I'm actually starting to get a bit worried these are 'end of days'......just needs another 'nuclear accident' and all this investing counts for sweet FA!!! 

[jamtomorrow]

Just now, nirvana said:

well I have been saying for years history repeats and the fascists at the FED have created another 'Weimar Republic'....

I'm actually starting to get a bit worried these are 'end of days'......just needs another 'nuclear accident' and all this investing counts for sweet FA!!! 

We'll know it's getting spicey when you can filter by "has cellar" on rightmove

[wherebee]

Post on LINKEDIN from Larry.  Good old larry, only on the side of the good guys:

I know I speak on behalf of everyone at BlackRock when I say how heartbreaking it’s been watching the unprovoked Russian attack on Ukraine. I’ve been speaking all week with clients, employees and regulators who are united in their grief and shock. One of my colleagues shared the devastating moment she said goodbye to a Ukrainian friend who has returned to defend his homeland, unsure if she will ever see him again. And I know the images of young children pressed against train windows escaping to safety will surely be etched in our memories for decades to come. We stand with the Ukrainian people and condemn the brutal aggression of the Russian government. 

This is a horrific humanitarian tragedy, and BlackRock is doing what it can to provide support to our colleagues and their families directly impacted. BlackRock and its people have also rallied to provide financial assistance to Ukrainian refugees on the ground. While we do not have offices or operations in Russia or Ukraine, we are providing support to our employees across Europe who are affected by this invasion. 

When the world emerged from the Cold War more than 30 years ago, Russia was given access to global capital markets. BlackRock never opened an office in Russia, but for clients who wanted exposure to the market, we invested in Russian securities.

The invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally changed Russia’s role in the world. Nations have united in imposing sanctions, which we strongly support. Global capital markets have gone even further. Capital is being pulled by investors and companies that have long done business in Russia. This demonstrates how the capital markets can work constructively to provide capital to those working within the system and quickly deny it to those who operate outside it. 

At BlackRock on Monday, February 28, we suspended the purchase of all Russian securities in our active and index funds. We also have proactively advocated with our index providers to remove Russian securities from broad-based indices. Russian securities today account for less than 0.01% of our clients’ assets, mostly in our index portfolios. A number of our major index providers have since announced removal of Russian securities from their indices, which will begin to take effect next week. 

The swift and coordinated response by governments, international institutions, regulators, global businesses, and investors has inhibited Russia’s ability to participate in and benefit from the global financial system. 

This has been a highly complex and fluid situation, and BlackRock will continue actively consulting with regulators, index providers and other market participants to help ensure our clients can exit their positions in Russian securities, whenever and wherever regulatory and market conditions allow.

It’s my sincere hope that peace in Ukraine can be restored, and democracy and freedom can flourish in Europe once again.

[CannonFodder]

11 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Post on LINKEDIN from Larry.  Good old larry, only on the side of the good guys:

I know I speak on behalf of everyone at BlackRock when I say how heartbreaking it’s been watching the unprovoked Russian attack on Ukraine. I’ve been speaking all week with clients, employees and regulators who are united in their grief and shock. One of my colleagues shared the devastating moment she said goodbye to a Ukrainian friend who has returned to defend his homeland, unsure if she will ever see him again. And I know the images of young children pressed against train windows escaping to safety will surely be etched in our memories for decades to come. We stand with the Ukrainian people and condemn the brutal aggression of the Russian government. 

This is a horrific humanitarian tragedy, and BlackRock is doing what it can to provide support to our colleagues and their families directly impacted. BlackRock and its people have also rallied to provide financial assistance to Ukrainian refugees on the ground. While we do not have offices or operations in Russia or Ukraine, we are providing support to our employees across Europe who are affected by this invasion. 

When the world emerged from the Cold War more than 30 years ago, Russia was given access to global capital markets. BlackRock never opened an office in Russia, but for clients who wanted exposure to the market, we invested in Russian securities.

The invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally changed Russia’s role in the world. Nations have united in imposing sanctions, which we strongly support. Global capital markets have gone even further. Capital is being pulled by investors and companies that have long done business in Russia. This demonstrates how the capital markets can work constructively to provide capital to those working within the system and quickly deny it to those who operate outside it. 

At BlackRock on Monday, February 28, we suspended the purchase of all Russian securities in our active and index funds. We also have proactively advocated with our index providers to remove Russian securities from broad-based indices. Russian securities today account for less than 0.01% of our clients’ assets, mostly in our index portfolios. A number of our major index providers have since announced removal of Russian securities from their indices, which will begin to take effect next week. 

The swift and coordinated response by governments, international institutions, regulators, global businesses, and investors has inhibited Russia’s ability to participate in and benefit from the global financial system. 

This has been a highly complex and fluid situation, and BlackRock will continue actively consulting with regulators, index providers and other market participants to help ensure our clients can exit their positions in Russian securities, whenever and wherever regulatory and market conditions allow.

It’s my sincere hope that peace in Ukraine can be restored, and democracy and freedom can flourish in Europe once again.

This the same Larry to tell people to sell oil companies.

I.LD rather watch his trades than his words.

[Lightscribe]

46 minutes ago, nirvana said:

well I have been saying for years history repeats and the fascists at the FED have created another 'Weimar Republic'....

I'm actually starting to get a bit worried these are 'end of days'......just needs another 'nuclear accident' and all this investing counts for sweet FA!!! 

Look we still have famine to go before that one so you can relax.

Fun fact: The word ‘toxon’ means bow in Ancient Greek, and ‘corona’ meaning crown. 

I thought that would cheer everybody’s Friday morning up.

[HousePriceMania]

Is anyone else happy with their Evraz investment

Market Summary > EVRAZ plc

61.69 GBX+8.59 (16.18%)toda

 

I wonder if it'll finish the day with starting with a 3 

[Barnsey]

Brutal out there, ladders people, ladders.

[geordie_lurch]

9 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Brutal out there, ladders people, ladders.

Yep. I really can't understand how Oil & Gas shares are losing around another 3% today given what's going on with no one able to by Russian stuff and the tightness of supply

[Pip321]

There are some FTSE 100 shares out there today which followed the ethos of this thread and had seen some real growth are now back already to March 2020 prices. Imperial Brands seems to be a really good example.

I am finding myself using March 2020 as a benchmark. I know I should look wider. 

Some others are still a way up from March 2020 due to 30% increases over the past couple of months eg BAT.

BP, Rio etc are higher than March 2020 but so are the commodities that underpin them so that’s expected.   

Certainly no recommendation and not very scientific but I think Imperial are now in my sights. I would prefer BAT and it’s higher yield but imperial has the lower P/E and hopefully based on my random date selection may have more upside. Long term investment looks better that inflation devoured cash. 

I think we all agree on the types of shares but just wondered if any others starting to fall into peoples radar for similar reasons. Or whether my thought process is just too naive.  

[Sidd]

18 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Is anyone else happy with their Evraz investment

Market Summary > EVRAZ plc

61.69 GBX+8.59 (16.18%)toda

 

I wonder if it'll finish the day with starting with a 3 

So i sold out this morning on Evraz and poly. I made a loss of 6k between Evraz and Poly (mitigated by similar gains elsewhere). Nonetheless it was the worst short term decision i made in hindsight and it could likely go back up in the months and years to come but i prefer sleeping peacefully at night and not worrying about small things.

[Pip321]

21 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Is anyone else happy with their Evraz investment

Market Summary > EVRAZ plc

61.69 GBX+8.59 (16.18%)toda

 

I wonder if it'll finish the day with starting with a 3 

Prediction is it does?. Ie £312 😆😆😆

Hmmm….maybe a tad bullish. 

[nirvana]

25 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Is anyone else happy with their Evraz investment

Market Summary > EVRAZ plc

61.69 GBX+8.59 (16.18%)toda

 

I wonder if it'll finish the day with starting with a 3 

yes but do we take the money and run to the hookers for the weekend or hold out for more? 

[Joncrete Cungle]

1 hour ago, CannonFodder said:

This the same Larry to tell people to sell oil companies.

I.LD rather watch his trades than his words.

I thought Blackrock doubled their holding in Poly this week?

[HousePriceMania]

4 minutes ago, nirvana said:

yes but do we take the money and run to the hookers for the weekend or hold out for more? 

No sure what hookers you use but I'm not sure my £12 profit will get me much.

[nirvana]

3 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

I thought Blackrock doubled their holding in Poly this week?

BlackCock are the second biggest set o cunts on the planet after the FED 

they could well have 'bought' the shares to use em for devious shorting stuff......