Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[nirvana]

14 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

Thats why my car has a spare wheel in the boot, you never know when you might need it.

mine doesn't, most of em don't nowadays.......can't remember the last time I needed a spare wheel 

[Animal Spirits]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

What military industrial complex?

The issue I have with all of these monetary policy instruments eg Fed Funds rate,is that they need willing borrowers and quite simply,if we have a seismic debt deflation or geo politcal event that creates uncertainty,then the Fed may not have what it needs.

I also wonder,where the IOER gets raised as part of the effort to target the Fed Funds Rate,whether we might see banks parking reserves at the Fed?

What's interesting for me( and I've had to reread and think through your above posts on the FFR) is what happens when the old instruments stop working.

Hence,I'm with your previous thinking that fiscal stimulus will replace willing debtors if necessary.

As per @Castlevania said,they're not banning UK listed stocks-yet.

I do wonder besides the odd basment dweller,whetehr the Russians are buying it all back on the cheap.....

It was reported that some banks pushed larger deposits onto MMF's to avoid being penalised by SLR regulations due to the increased liabilites. The MMF's then needed suitable interest bearing collateral to fulfil their own obligations to depositors and rather than causing yields to drop further in the treasury market bidding (they dont want to go below zero) they could use the treasuries parked at the Fed which has the assets from its QE operations.

As you point out, funds remaining parked for IOR would suggest the banks didn't want to lend or can't find suitable borrowers and prefer the liquidity of safe instruments.

@DurhamBornAre you thinking implict state guarantee along the lines of Russel Napier's thoughts for future lending to push this money into the economy?

[leonardratso]

3 minutes ago, nirvana said:

mine doesn't, most of em don't nowadays.......can't remember the last time I needed a spare wheel 

yeah they have a can of foam that ruins the tyre and means you have to buy a new one asap when a £15 patch and pull through would have made it good as new. Oops going on about xyys hobbies again, sorry.

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, leonardratso said:

yeah they have a can of foam that ruins the tyre and means you have to buy a new one asap when a £15 patch and pull through would have made it good as new. Oops going on about xyys hobbies again, sorry.

most punctures are slow punctures in any case......spare wheels are for folks in 3rd world cuntries with shite roads......and England I suppose  christ going a bit OT lol

[leonardratso]

7 minutes ago, nirvana said:

most punctures are slow punctures in any case......spare wheels are for folks in 3rd world cuntries with shite roads......and England I suppose  christ going a bit OT lol

hahaha, still, who knows whats round the corner, id rather have my spare wheel and never use it than not have it and wish i had it at some serious juncture. All analogous of course, i dont really have a car or a spare wheel in it, ive got an ex russian jet that i just bought off a bloke in the pub, tall guy, beard, smelled of vodka, said he needed money fast, i gave him £25 for it and just pulled it home with my horse. Ill go fill it up tomorrow down morrisons.

[ThoughtCriminal]

He's definitely making sure he hammers home his point: "I don't care what you think. What the fuck are you going to do about it?".

[leonardratso]

5 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

They'll never lease a plane again. They haven't thought that through. They'll be flying bangers around the sky like Iran, just when they were getting somewhere.

I once got an Aeroflot IIllushyin 96 from Shannon to Cuba. There was a dodgy travel agent above a shop in Dublin who looked like Lovejoy who realised there was an angle to sell direct flights to Cuba from Ireland as they stopped there to refuel, and he'd book a few seats for nothing. So off we went, I didn't go into the details with the girlfriend. We got on around 4am at Shannon. This was 2004 or so, but there were cats on ladies laps, a poker game was going on at the back in the floor area by the toilets, and the boys were smoking cigars. The trolley dolly looked like Ivan Drago and the fecking cabin had chandeliers. And 70s wall pattern. All of the above is true, that's what it was like a few short years ago, in Putin's early reign. And it's going back there.

Idiots.

you dont know class when you see it man.....

 

[Starsend]

13 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

They'll never lease a plane again. They haven't thought that through. They'll be flying bangers around the sky like Iran, just when they were getting somewhere.

I once got an Aeroflot IIllushyin 96 from Shannon to Cuba. There was a dodgy travel agent above a shop in Dublin who looked like Lovejoy who realised there was an angle to sell direct flights to Cuba from Ireland as they stopped there to refuel, and he'd book a few seats for nothing. So off we went, I didn't go into the details with the girlfriend. We got on around 4am at Shannon. This was 2004 or so, but there were cats on ladies laps, a poker game was going on at the back in the floor area by the toilets, and the boys were smoking cigars. The trolley dolly looked like Ivan Drago and the fecking cabin had chandeliers. And 70s wall pattern. All of the above is true, that's what it was like a few short years ago, in Putin's early reign. And it's going back there.

Idiots.

Edit

Oh and the pilots were in the queue with me in the duty free in Shannon, armfuls of booze. I just put it out of my mind, didn't tell the bird 

Sounds alright actually

[ThoughtCriminal]

China and Russia are jointly developing the CR929 airliner.

 

They have no intention of using western aircraft long-term.

 

Western dominance is over. We decided to import the third world and turn our kids into trannies. Societies that degenerate don't prosper.

[Option5]

33 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

yeah they have a can of foam that ruins the tyre and means you have to buy a new one asap when a £15 patch and pull through would have made it good as new. Oops going on about xyys hobbies again, sorry.

I have a repair kit that pushes a sticky thing through the tyre and seals it. Used it twice, works a treat 

[leonardratso]

15 minutes ago, Option5 said:

I have a repair kit that pushes a sticky thing through the tyre and seals it. Used it twice, works a treat 

ive got one of those as well, is it a crooked sort of push rod that puts it in the hole and then bends it double on the way out, it being rubber tubes or such.

sorry never used it but its this kind of thing, i should have a go with it but i havent had a puncture for years, tyres are usually shagged out before i get a puncture.

[feed]

 

More Luke Gromen, some overlap from the other day, but sounds like he's had more time to run through it. 

https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/bitcoin-fundamentals/russia-ukraine-war-global-macro-impacts-luke-gromen/

 

[MrXxxx]

47 minutes ago, nirvana said:

most punctures are slow punctures in any case......spare wheels are for folks in 3rd world cuntries with shite roads......and England I suppose  christ going a bit OT lol

Talking of rubber AVON are down again today, and as for SSL, they disappeared in 2019!

[MrXxxx]

21 minutes ago, Option5 said:

I have a repair kit that pushes a sticky thing through the tyre and seals it. Used it twice, works a treat 

That's how my parents explained it!

[Plan-b]

10 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

ive got one of those as well, is it a crooked sort of push rod that puts it in the hole and then bends it double on the way out, it being rubber tubes or such.

sorry never used it but its this kind of thing, i should have a go with it but i havent had a puncture for years, tyres are usually shagged out before i get a puncture.

So have I, works a treat!

[kibuc]

For people who like polymetalic deposits, Eloro recently delivered some of the best drill results you'll ever see even if you're planning to last 3 lifetimes (and appreciated 50% almost instantly). I don't own it because Bolivia but those grades and lengths are absolute world class. CAD350mil mcap.

[StrugglingMillennial]

1 hour ago, The Bear of Doom said:

As there has been a lot of discussion about POLY over the last few days, I may as well share my not so exciting journey with POLY.  I bought my first tranche towards the end of September 2020 for around 1720p. It was not a large investment, but I added to it around the middle of January this year at around 1220p. Fortunately I only bought a similar number to the first tranche.

I'm now looking at a reasonably sized loss in my POLY investments  but it is more than covered by gains elsewhere  which shows the benefit of a portfolio spread across a variety of sectors, and companies within each sector.

If it's any comfort I'm in a similar position with gazprom, I bought it at a decent price during 2020 and I was pleased as punch with it's performance but needless to say it's junk value now.

I decided to take the risk and hold it as I only have 1.5k invested, fingers crossed it will make a comeback at some point as I still think it would be a winner for the cycle.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Animal Spirits said:

It was reported that some banks pushed larger deposits onto MMF's to avoid being penalised by SLR regulations due to the increased liabilites. The MMF's then needed suitable interest bearing collateral to fulfil their own obligations to depositors and rather than causing yields to drop further in the treasury market bidding (they dont want to go below zero) they could use the treasuries parked at the Fed which has the assets from its QE operations.

As you point out, funds remaining parked for IOR would suggest the banks didn't want to lend or can't find suitable borrowers and prefer the liquidity of safe instruments.

@DurhamBornAre you thinking implict state guarantee along the lines of Russel Napier's thoughts for future lending to push this money into the economy?

Margin  maybe rather than guarantee.In the US the Fed is about to force the liquidity into the real economy ,it wants the reverse repo money lending and onto bank balance sheets.Over here our banks are shot,so i think it will be insurance companies and pension funds doing the investing.Question is how high do rates need to go to force this issue,we will find out.

Markets are rough and sentiment is on the floor and fear is everywhere,but all of this was expected and is part of the process of a reflation.Polos will steal/inflate wealth away,unless you are hedged,though even then it seems they can still just take the lot.They decided last week to take around 7% of my BP value away from my children and let the Ruskies have it for free.

[HousePriceMania]

8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Margin  maybe rather than guarantee.In the US the Fed is about to force the liquidity into the real economy ,it wants the reverse repo money lending and onto bank balance sheets.Over here our banks are shot,so i think it will be insurance companies and pension funds doing the investing.Question is how high do rates need to go to force this issue,we will find out.

Markets are rough and sentiment is on the floor and fear is everywhere,but all of this was expected and is part of the process of a reflation.Polos will steal/inflate wealth away,unless you are hedged,though even then it seems they can still just take the lot.They decided last week to take around 7% of my BP value away from my children and let the Ruskies have it for free.

DurhamBorn will own nothing and none of us will be happy.

[HousePriceMania]

You can't lose on shorting property

 

[HousePriceMania]

Just noticed my oil shares plunged about 4% across the board with oil prices going up, what happened ?

 

If the oil price collapses suddenly, what do people think will happen the share prices, BP etc still no where near their 2019 highs in reality while Exxon is way past that level

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Talking of rubber AVON are down again today, and as for SSL, they disappeared in 2019!

 

 

 

They're not having a Good Year.

 

[wherebee]

10 hours ago, Harley said:

Ah, lots of US regional banks were popping up on my screen last week.  I flagged them all as macro unfriendly!  Whoops?

The US regional banks are often badly run, with mediocre staff and management.  I've dealt with a few in my career.  They tend to underinvest on systems and IT as well, which leaves them wide open.

Think small/mid UK building societies from the 80's on.  I wouldn't touch most of them. (some, however, are very good as evidenced by their ownership of the legal cannabis market banking space because their cross state competitors are not allowed to bank them.)

[leonardratso]

3 minutes ago, wherebee said:

The US regional banks are often badly run, with mediocre staff and management.  I've dealt with a few in my career.  They tend to underinvest on systems and IT as well, which leaves them wide open.

Think small/mid UK building societies from the 80's on.  I wouldn't touch most of them. (some, however, are very good as evidenced by their ownership of the legal cannabis market banking space because their cross state competitors are not allowed to bank them.)

hmm, doesnt mean they wont make a wad though, i work for a much reviled and fairly inefficient company that makes plenty of fuckups internally, well i say work .... you know what i mean, pretend to work, but anyway they still make money hand over fist, they could make more but are too inept, still, i wouldnt mind a piece of them if they were listed.

[reformed nice guy]

Wheat futures have rocketed...

https://www.investing.com/commodities/us-wheat