Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[kibuc]

1 minute ago, afly said:

Confirmed. Purchased 1 share @ 209

Welcome to the yacht club.

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

"Represent" - what an interesting word in this particular sentence.

Does it mean "everyone agrees are as good as"? I think it used to until about 1 week ago.

What does it mean today? What will it mean tomorrow?

Everyone here know how to play the Keynesian Beauty Contest?

They 'represent' shares that were bought with FIAT that 'represents' money that 'represents' an individuals labour...seems the only real thing here is the last one, all the others are abstracts!

[Harley]

Seasoned financial folk look for divergences and position for the inevitable upside or downside breakout.  We have a massive divergence atm.  Peak essentially vacuous propaganda (ably assisted by the msm) combined with peak virtue signalling and dependence, versus boots on the ground, reserves, and other such physicalities.  Doubling down can't last forever.  How are you positioned? 

[marceau]

19 minutes ago, Harley said:

Just remember that unlike some, Vlad values some things more than money.

GDP slaves will be among the biggest fools in history.

[nirvana]

in for more EVRAZ!!!!

Peace talks are ongoing....come on yer nazi/commie bastards, drink vodka and shake each others hands!!!

 

[invalid]

25 minutes ago, 23rdian said:

Just done a small token trade with Freetrade and it's still allowing me to buy. 

 

Just tried on T212 - now get the message  "trading limited to selling shares only"

Freetrade seems to be working now - thanks to those who tried and updated the thread

 

[BurntBread]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

When's the EVRAZ EX-DIV date ?   

Div yield

196.39%

You can tell because the share price will fall at that point by the amount of dividend paid out. That will be the time to buy.

[Transistor Man]

24 minutes ago, janch said:

Rheinmetal AG is the beneficiary and we've all missed out:

Someone mentioned it on another site I visit.

 

H&K also. 

 

 

[Majorpain]

24 minutes ago, Harley said:

Seasoned financial folk look for divergences and position for the inevitable upside or downside breakout.  We have a massive divergence atm.  Peak essentially vacuous propaganda (ably assisted by the msm) combined with peak virtue signalling and dependence, versus boots on the ground, reserves, and other such physicalities.  Doubling down can't last forever.  How are you positioned? 

At the heart of this is the petrodollar that has once again been weaponised, the physical "petro" and the financial "dollar" are currently duking it out in a fight to the death.  Problem for "dollar" is with Europe buying $1bn of Russian "petro" each day it is rather badly handicapped, with Germany today essentially refusing to stop buying it!

Technically I've actually been positioned since 2016 for a Russian victory both militarily and financially.

[Pip321]

Starting to see some real wobbles in the FTSE….I might go shopping soon. Obviously the better shares are doing ok….but some weakness. Soooo glad I got out at Unilever with a divi and @ 3730. 

Good to see the cocaine driven Dow is up. Hey, stock markets are tumbling, invasion getting worse, oil rocketing….that means we might not put up rates = Dow goes up.

I think the US is yet to feel the repercussions yet….if things rumble on I can see a little dip across the markets over there no matter how much helium they keep pumping in.

Has anyone watched Bloomberg etc….it’s the worst one sided reporting ever. US is strong, earnings are strong, Russia in trouble, our stocks are good value.

Holding my Poly to the bitter end….a modest bet but still hurts when it wipes out all my other gains. Stop loss, lesson learned 😞

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

Ah, lots of US regional banks were popping up on my screen last week.  I flagged them all as macro unfriendly!  Whoops?

Might be worth looking at the best technical ones for a sniff.Im tempted to simple buy a few,no ladders,just a few small holdings.Really busy with jobs around the house at the minute and my daughters car im not getting much time to look at things.Few ladders hit again today though and HL is skirting first ladder if i dont remove it .Very nervous market ,any earnings worry is being smashed down,ITV today for instance.

[Harley]

When they lay an ambush or a booby trap they think about you.  They really think of you.  They become you.  They walk in your shoes, they get under your skin.  Once they own you, they think about what they want from you.  They usually want more than you.  They want the things you can give them.  Things you never even thought you could give.  Then they wait.

[Democorruptcy]

17 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

I think I get what your saying, assuming you mean that the contagion risk is that the Russian sanctions will kick off a series of fuck ups that will cause a recession and bring down share prices further.

My purchases from the past few years have mainly been in the formerly hated sectors - oil, gas, potash, chemical producers etc

I think a recession is baked in but if the central banks are continuing to print alongside wouldnt there be a dash for real assets? Tech would be the big headline crash that would bugger up index funds, lots of pensions that are 40% FAANG shares etc, but wouldnt the boring things that produce the inflation loving assets hold up well?

There might be chances to sell now and buy back cheaper later but the ladder system worked fantasically well for me during the covid wobble so I do have faith in it. Divis are rolling in nicely from getting big chunks Exxon in the 30s etc

Im not asking for advice, just laying out my thinking really probably mostly for my own consumption.

Fellow ladder users - have you lowered the "top rung" over your ladders in anticipation of a BK?

I just meant that the Bloomberg talking heads had been going on about asset managers holding a lot Russian stocks and nobody knows what's going to happen etc. They love to stoke a bit of fear.

Good luck with your ladders.

 

[Axeman123]

Just bought £2K each of Polymetal and Evraz on AJ Bell, in case anyone was wondering about that platform.

[Democorruptcy]

Re the LSE suspending Russian shares

Quote

The London Stock Exchange has suspended trading in 27 companies with strong ties to Russia, including aluminium producer EN+, Sberbank, Gazprom, Lukoil and gold miner Polyus. The LSE said the move was prompted by “events in Ukraine, in light of market conditions, and in order to maintain orderly markets.”

Must be this one

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

22 minutes ago, Harley said:

When they lay an ambush or a booby trap they think about you.  They really think of you.  They become you.  They walk in your shoes, they get under your skin.  Once they own you, they think about what they want from you.  They usually want more than you.  They want the things you can give them.  Things you never even thought you could give.  Then they wait.

Are you smoking @nirvana's stash?

[HousePriceMania]

53 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Starting to see some real wobbles in the FTSE….I might go shopping soon. Obviously the better shares are doing ok….but some weakness. Soooo glad I got out at Unilever with a divi and @ 3730. 

Good to see the cocaine driven Dow is up. Hey, stock markets are tumbling, invasion getting worse, oil rocketing….that means we might not put up rates = Dow goes up.

I think the US is yet to feel the repercussions yet….if things rumble on I can see a little dip across the markets over there no matter how much helium they keep pumping in.

Has anyone watched Bloomberg etc….it’s the worst one sided reporting ever. US is strong, earnings are strong, Russia in trouble, our stocks are good value.

Holding my Poly to the bitter end….a modest bet but still hurts when it wipes out all my other gains. Stop loss, lesson learned 😞

APPLE just lost a massive market and it share price went up.

It's not rigged tho.

[Noallegiance]

29 minutes ago, Harley said:

When they lay an ambush or a booby trap they think about you.  They really think of you.  They become you.  They walk in your shoes, they get under your skin.  Once they own you, they think about what they want from you.  They usually want more than you.  They want the things you can give them.  Things you never even thought you could give.  Then they wait.

Is the answer 'women'?

[geordie_lurch]

I forgot I placed a buy order in Shell the other week that's been hit today but it's all good as my average is way below these levels and I can't see oil coming down this year or probably next and I'm all about the dividends these days In hindsight, I shouldn't have tried to be clever selling them between 1000p and 1500p or whatever it was when I was new to all this but that experience has helped my S&S ISA be a lot more balanced than it would have been Cheers as ever to all on here for making this such a great and life changing thread in these crazy times

[belfastchild]

Heard about one of the unintended sanctions effects today.
Airlines (including Aeroflot) lease their planes. Mostly from Irish companies.
To sum up a 10 minute conversation it boils down to 'Givus our planes back' 'no fuck off, come and get them, but you cant fly them out, sanctions, no fly etc, oh and we arent paying'
Looks like some airline leasing companies are in deep shit, small amount of their inventory not being paid for and maybe little or no recovery either.
Read some 'informed' MSM bits about how russian airlines are up shit creek without a paddle as they only have a couple of weeks supplies for their boeing/airbus and how they will be limited to internal flights only. Doesnt really matter if they are leased, does it?

I dont think a lot of this has been thought through...

[Harley]

40 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Problem for "dollar" is with Europe buying $1bn of Russian "petro" each day it is rather badly handicapped, with Germany today essentially refusing to stop buying it!

Indeed.  It could get much worse.  Germany is "lucky" it has the choice!  It is not stupid though (people calling others stupid are usually the stupid ones!).  It had a strategy but must have got captured.  And it doesn't stop at oil and gas.  So much more, in Russia and the key parts of the Ukraine Russia has its tanks parked on.  Surely the West (wrong term) is going for broke, and may well break something this time.  As with Covid and all the rest, this is not about covid and all the rest.  Time to step back as far as it can fit in your brain!

[Axeman123]

2 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Heard about one of the unintended sanctions effects today.
Airlines (including Aeroflot) lease their planes. Mostly from Irish companies.
To sum up a 10 minute conversation it boils down to 'Givus our planes back' 'no fuck off, come and get them, but you cant fly them out, sanctions, no fly etc, oh and we arent paying'
Looks like some airline leasing companies are in deep shit, small amount of their inventory not being paid for and maybe little or no recovery either.
Read some 'informed' MSM bits about how russian airlines are up shit creek without a paddle as they only have a couple of weeks supplies for their boeing/airbus and how they will be limited to internal flights only. Doesnt really matter if they are leased, does it?

I dont think a lot of this has been thought through...

Those leasing companies will also probably have bank loans secured on those stranded assets.

I just don't think this can go on like this much longer. Adults will have to take charge, and promise to veto Ukrainian membership of NATO/EU.

[Harley]

22 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Are you smoking @nirvana's stash?

What, and miss the show! 

[kibuc]

1 minute ago, Axeman123 said:

Those leasing companies will also probably have bank loans secured on those stranded assets.

I just don't think this can go on like this much longer. Adults will have to take charge, and promise to veto Ukrainian membership of NATO/EU.

We're only just emerging from two years of decimating businesses to stop OAPs from dying a few years early, sentences like "this cannot go on like this" have no place in this new world. 

[Axeman123]

Just now, kibuc said:

We're only just emerging from two years of decimating businesses to stop OAPs from dying a few years early, sentences like "this cannot go on like this" have no place in this new world. 

I don't know. Countries are pledging total economic war on each other, the only possible escalation from there is kinetic or atomic. Can this fevered atmosphere be maintained without escalating? Can pathetic vain short men like Macron hold back from escalating when impotent threats like that are ignored?

Covid restrictions slowly ratcheted up in contrast to this madness, and consequences were soothed with copious QE and direct fiscal injection. Inflation surely has ended that nonsense.

God I hope you are wrong.