Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

 

Made me want to go out and buy another Lithium battery!

PS: Tom is an absolute star.  He's consistently given us an amazing stream of excellent and well conceived, prepared, and executed interviews.  

[Sidd]

3 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Ex-div date

23 Dec 2021 (Thu)

10 Mar 2022 (Thu )

 

 

I'm holding this just for the giggles.  Wonder what'll happen next.

Not so much the giggles for me but ive come prepared that if it goes 0 i lose a lot of money but i wont shed a tear and accept the outcome as expected.

Ive always been a risk taker, so lets see if this pulls off. Either way i am ready to hold for a long time.

[sancho panza]

10 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

The Russian Government have apparently set aside US$10 billion for “Plunge Protection”/buy up everything on the cheap purposes.

If they force up the price of gold(and let's be frank,they're sat on tonnes of it),then they'll net off leaving all the losses for Western banks/funds/investors,have all the assets in the ground without the headache of having ti split the profits on what they sell to China.

[Harley]

Covered all my Russian stock losses in one day yesterday as some seeds I'd planted started to germinate.  Nothing exciting or amazing, just plodding along.

[Harley]

3 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

If they force up the price of gold(and let's be frank,they're sat on tonnes of it),then they'll net off leaving all the losses for Western banks/funds/investors,have all the assets in the ground without the headache of having ti split the profits on what they sell to China.

Will oil and gas be big enough break the gold price suppression cartel?  And those of us with paper Gold in (most) ETFs, etc?  

[sancho panza]

5 minutes ago, Harley said:

And those of us with Gold in (most) ETFs, etc?  

I believe the origins of fractional reserve lending were during Roman times when gold dealers realsied they could write more promissory notes than they had gold on deposit.Just saying.

Worked out well for the Romans.

[Majorpain]

11 minutes ago, Cawn said:

HL - Polymetal Statement

Some market makers are unable to trade this stock at the moment owing to intermittent pricing and liquidity issues for these shares. If you place an order we will endeavor to execute it, but please be aware we may not be able to fulfill your order and you may find it hard to trade this stock in future.

Liquidity issues with T212 aswell. 

Running out of stock, high demand ~@200p

No problems quoting a chunky buy for me, I think their problems are (understandably) too many sellers rather than not enough buyers.

[HousePriceMania]

13 minutes ago, Sidd said:

Not so much the giggles for me but ive come prepared that if it goes 0 i lose a lot of money but i wont shed a tear and accept the outcome as expected.

Ive always been a risk taker, so lets see if this pulls off. Either way i am ready to hold for a long time.

Good Luck Sidd.  I fully expect POLY and EVRAZ to go to 0.  If it survives the war it will make a few quid hopefully.

I stand to lose about £1500 all told.   but I can live with that, my investments went up 3K this week.

[23rdian]

52 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Ever get the feeling people have trying to destroy America.

When they have printed $5Tn and keeping it's at 0%, it's a sign of weakness, not strength. 

Maybe the rest of the world smell blood.

WW3 could be coming.

I think this too. China and Russia are seizing their chance. I don't think this war is unrelated to making viruses in labs either.

[reformed nice guy]

Ignoring my Russian shares........

I have a ladder set at 30 for Cargotec which is slowly coming into range. Havent bought much (thats not Russian) since the covid wobbles.

Also have BASF at 50 and Evonik at 21. Wish me luck!

[Majorpain]

14 minutes ago, Cawn said:

I do not understand the mechanics of bid and ask, sellers and buyers etc. Some say each sell is matched to a buy, how that works I cannot fathom. Some say volume of buys/sells has nothing to do with the SP going up or down. Some say the MM's hold a pool of stock.

A high volume buy day and the SP falls heavily. One guy told me the SP is walked up or down by the MM's. Another that the SP is determined by millions of bits of data sets all accumulated by the Quant Algorithm's.

If anyone cares to chip in and explain I would be most appreciated.

Keeping it simple market makers make their money from the spread (difference between Buy/sell) of the share, its therefore in their interest that the price is set at the point at which most people want to transact to maximise their income.  What's happening here is that everyone wants to sell and the market makers cant find anyone to buy, so they reduce the price down till they can temp people to come in on the buy side.  Equally if everyone is buying and they cant find sellers, they increase the price till holders are willing to sell.

[Democorruptcy]

8 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Ignoring my Russian shares........

I have a ladder set at 30 for Cargotec which is slowly coming into range. Havent bought much (thats not Russian) since the covid wobbles.

Also have BASF at 50 and Evonik at 21. Wish me luck!

The talking heads need to say the 'Contagion' word for you!

[invalid]

39 minutes ago, Cawn said:

HL - Polymetal Statement

Some market makers are unable to trade this stock at the moment owing to intermittent pricing and liquidity issues for these shares. If you place an order we will endeavor to execute it, but please be aware we may not be able to fulfill your order and you may find it hard to trade this stock in future.

Liquidity issues with T212 aswell. 

Running out of stock, high demand ~@200p

 

T212 Statement.

"Russian Securities - Suspended from trading
Due to the ongoing situation in Ukraine, the below listed Russian securities have been suspended from trading by their respective market exchanges.

LSE traded securities
MD MEDICAL GROUP IN-GDR REGS - MDMG

LENTA PLC - LNTA

HMS GROUP PLC - GDR REG S - HMSG

GAZPROM PJSC-SPON ADR - OGZD

EN+ GROUP INTERNA- GDR REG S - ENPL

PETROPAVLOVSK PLC - POG

X 5 RETAIL GROUP NV-REGS GDR - FIVE

GLOBALTRA-SPONS GDR REG S - GLTR

ROSNEFT OIL CO PJSC-REGS GDR - ROSN

O'KEY GROUP SA-GDR REGS - OKEY

VK CO LTD - VKCO

ETALON GROUP-GDR REG S - ETLN

ROS AGRO PLC- GDR REG S - AGRO

POLYMETAL INTERNATIONAL PLC - POLY

Xetra traded securities
GAZPROM PJSC-SPON ADR - GAZ

NASDAQ & NYSE traded securities
HEADHUNTER GROUP PLC - HHR

OZON HOLDINGS PLC - OZON

YANDEX NV - YNDX

MECHEL PJSC-SPONSORED ADR - MTL

CIAN PLC - CIAN

MECHEL-PREF SPON ADR - MTL PR

MOBILE TELESYSTEMS PUBLIC JO - MBT

OTC traded securities
Polymetal International PLC - AUCOY

MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC - NILSY

LUKOIL PJSC - LUKOY

Polyus PJSC - OPYGY

Gazprom Neft PJSC - GZPFY

Rostelecom PJSC - ROSYY

* Global OTC will suspend trading in the above instruments effective at the close of trading on the 4th of March, 2022. If you hold any of these instruments past this date, you will not be able to close your position."

 

Was just about to post that T212 no longer taking trades on POLY. Freetrade seemed to stop yesterday.

When the fun stops, stop.

 

But, I was having some fun dipping in and out at the bottom. I actually made some profit on POLY, enough that even with some bought at around £10 I had managed to breakeven. Stranded asset now. Fortunately only gambling with some very small amounts that happy to put at risk.

Interesting list of other Russian assets to have a play around with if they start trading again.

 

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

Crunched some data on oil spike impact, all assuming 55 litre petrol tank and UK tax regime.

$100 oil : £83.02 1.50/litre

$200 oil: £124.60 2.26/litre

47% increase which is going to sting a bit.

Didn't we have those refinery blockades when it got to 80p?

[Joncrete Cungle]

3 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Didn't we have those refinery blockades when it got to 80p?

It was £1 a litre that kicked the blockades off if I remember correctly. I had a moped at the time and I remember filling it for £5 and thinking that was expensive.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

41 minutes ago, Sidd said:

Not so much the giggles for me but ive come prepared that if it goes 0 i lose a lot of money but i wont shed a tear and accept the outcome as expected.

Ive always been a risk taker, so lets see if this pulls off. Either way i am ready to hold for a long time.

 

When this Ukraine bollox finally blows over I think YOU and all the Evraz holders will make a KILLING and will be joining @nirvana on his yacht with his bevy of chicks for some BIGfun!

 

 

I'd like to join in with just a 'monkey punt' *BUT* if i do ...You can bet your sweet bippy @HousePriceMania & @MrXxxx will be constantly MOANING or blaming me for the Evraz daily down movements or demise!

 

 

[23rdian]

16 minutes ago, invalid said:

 

Was just about to post that T212 no longer taking trades on POLY. Freetrade seemed to stop yesterday.

When the fun stops, stop.

 

But, I was having some fun dipping in and out at the bottom. I actually made some profit on POLY, enough that even with some bought at around £10 I had managed to breakeven. Stranded asset now. Fortunately only gambling with some very small amounts that happy to put at risk.

Interesting list of other Russian assets to have a play around with if they start trading again.

 

Just done a small token trade with Freetrade and it's still allowing me to buy. 

[reformed nice guy]

15 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

The talking heads need to say the 'Contagion' word for you!

I think I get what your saying, assuming you mean that the contagion risk is that the Russian sanctions will kick off a series of fuck ups that will cause a recession and bring down share prices further.

My purchases from the past few years have mainly been in the formerly hated sectors - oil, gas, potash, chemical producers etc

I think a recession is baked in but if the central banks are continuing to print alongside wouldnt there be a dash for real assets? Tech would be the big headline crash that would bugger up index funds, lots of pensions that are 40% FAANG shares etc, but wouldnt the boring things that produce the inflation loving assets hold up well?

There might be chances to sell now and buy back cheaper later but the ladder system worked fantasically well for me during the covid wobble so I do have faith in it. Divis are rolling in nicely from getting big chunks Exxon in the 30s etc

Im not asking for advice, just laying out my thinking really probably mostly for my own consumption.

Fellow ladder users - have you lowered the "top rung" over your ladders in anticipation of a BK?

[Harley]

Pick a commodity, any commodity, but not just commodity.  Reminds me of a time I used to talk about the essentials of "value"...

Just remember that unlike some, Vlad values some things differently than money.

[sancho panza]

39 minutes ago, Cawn said:

I do not understand the mechanics of bid and ask, sellers and buyers etc. Some say each sell is matched to a buy, how that works I cannot fathom. Some say volume of buys/sells has nothing to do with the SP going up or down. Some say the MM's hold a pool of stock.

A high volume buy day and the SP falls heavily. One guy told me the SP is walked up or down by the MM's. Another that the SP is determined by millions of bits of data sets all accumulated by the Quant Algorithm's.

If anyone cares to chip in and explain I would be most appreciated.

@Majorpain POG getting a bid today.Up 10%

Ref teh Q,jsut to add to MP's answer,some shares are traded electroncially,others less liquid via market makers.Bid offer spread increases to ease people into the bid offer at either end.Bid offer spread is also high if MM's have to sit on stock,hence mroe liquid stocks  have low srpeads .As MP said,MM's aren't bothered whteher it goes up or down jsut as long as they don't get left behind.

@moneyscam would have most knowledge if he's about

[Harley]

4 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Just read some tweets about how the US are buying $50M of oil from Russia every day....

Time to walk through the mirror.  Russia is selling $50M of oil to the US every day!

[kibuc]

"The mining company Evraz, in which Roman Abramovich owns a 29% stake, and the precious metals mining group Polymetal meet LSE criteria for being assigned “UK nationality” for trading purposes. On Wednesday, both companies dropped out of the FTSE 100 in its quarterly review after their market values have plummeted."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/03/london-stock-exchange-suspends-trading-in-27-firms-with-strong-links-to-russia

[janch]

5 hours ago, dnb24 said:

Germany creates €100billion fund for their armed forces

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-27/scholz-says-germany-to-create-special-eu100b-armed-forces-fund
 

Rheinmetal AG is the beneficiary and we've all missed out:

Someone mentioned it on another site I visit.

[Harley]

Are we all keeping the main thing the main thing?

[afly]

13 minutes ago, 23rdian said:

Just done a small token trade with Freetrade and it's still allowing me to buy. 

Confirmed. Purchased 1 share @ 209