Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Pip321]

3 minutes ago, nirvana said:

it's ok, I've been liquidated already 

Where’s our yacht? You promised us a yacht.

[RWJ]

36 minutes ago, moneyscam said:

 

We can isolate Russia financially from the western system but we can't isolate ourselves from the consequences of that. Massive inflationary shock incoming while fundamental plumbing of western system is seriously challenged and maybe even dismantled by BRICS. This is way beyond Ukraine for me and has the feel of 2008. Serious cascades and network effects in the offing. Market already beginning to sniff the first weak link is Euro sovereign debt market when ECB forced to raise rates to stem inflationary wave. Euro fx beginning to reflect this as are Euro bank stocks.

A hysterical EU and public for 'team Ukraine' are going to get slapped by a serious dose of reality that not even the MSM will be able to hide.

Nicely summed up.

I've been trying to find a way to articulate this on the Russian-Ukraine thread, which for the most part misses the bigger picture and is focused on hot head Putin or Ukrainian Nazis. 

It's the opening gambit of a much bigger play.  Putin will have been well aware of economic consequences resulting from the invasion and western clowns have walked right into the trap.  

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

https://uk.investing.com/news/economy/euro-zone-unemployment-at-record-lows-producer-prices-show-record-jump-yy-2597165

SOme of that article needs putting in bold NA.Nice find.GOing to be going even higher with $112 Brent

'But prices at factory gates, which herald price trends for consumers, jumped 5.2% month-on-month -- more than double the market expectations -- for a record 30.6% year-on-year surge, accelerating from a 26.3% jump in December.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 27.0% year-on-year rise.

The huge increase was mainly a result of an 11.6% monthly and a 85.6% annual increase in oil and gas prices, boosted already by the very threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine before the aggression actually happened.

 

The producer price increase will be an additional headache for the European Central Bank because it is bound to boost consumer prices, which the bank wants to keep at 2.0%.

Consumer inflation was already at a record 5.8% in February and economists expect it will accelerate further.'

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I dont want shooting here,but its hugely bullish for mid sized regional banks in the US 

 

One of the fallacies that gets put out there is that ZIRP is good for banks profits.Reality is their margins are much fatter with higher IR's.

55 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

The BRICS, led by China and Russia, are making their move. This will be viewed historically as a paradigm shift.

Agreed.The West jsut doens't know how fubar this is going to get.

Reminder-buy more firewood and baked beans

[nirvana]

3 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Where’s our yacht? You promised us a yacht.

i promised you nowt comrade pip!

I said the fit chicks could come aboard and polish my barnacles 

[DoINeedOne]

7 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Where’s our yacht? You promised us a yacht.

[Majorpain]

Crunched some data on oil spike impact, all assuming 55 litre petrol tank and UK tax regime.

$100 oil : £83.02 1.50/litre

$200 oil: £124.60 2.26/litre

47% increase which is going to sting a bit.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

15 minutes ago, nirvana said:

i promised you nowt comrade pip!

I said the fit chicks could come aboard and polish my barnacles 

 

 

[M S E Refugee]

Lithuania stops importation of Russian LNG https://www.rt.com/business/551139-lithuania-stops-lng-russia/

The Western World is quickly virtue signalling itself into poverty.

[Sugarlips]

21 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

 

I’d settle for the jet ski 🍻

[Sidd]

Bought shit loads of Everest at 61.7. Went with my gut instinct. Roman is selling Chelsea but not his shares, so following the big guys for once.

[geordie_lurch]

This person's blog is a bit nuts in places (esp how deep they go with some Covid ideas) but this post should really be read by people interested in all things macro to do with this thread as well as the others in their Hybrid War series especially this one as they comment on a lot of 'coincidences' that have occurred recently in terms of global logistics...

Quote

China is dominating every possible aspect of every critical industry in the world, the only thing they lack is hold a monopoly of semiconductor manufacturing, which I think they might correct pretty soon.

You know what would give them a even bigger advantage, disrupt its enemies, further fracture their economies?

Expeditors International Shuts Down Computer Systems After Cyberattack

The logistics giant hasn’t said when it will fully restore operations.

Seattle-based logistics giant Expeditors International of Washington Inc. said it had shut down most of its operating systems in response to a cyberattack disclosed Sunday, raising fears of further stress on already fragile global supply chains.

In a statement published on its website, the freight-forwarding company said it currently has a “limited ability” to conduct operations, including arranging freight shipments and managing customs and distribution activities

This story was buried pretty fast in the media, not out of interest, more like a matter of national security. This isn’t by any means new. And as an opening for the next part of our complexity analysis.

Given that some countries and governments (and its self-proclaimed elites) can’t disrupt trade and life as usual to push their agenda, we enter the season of cyber-attacks.

Ransomware attack hits Nhava Sheva container terminal

A suspected ransomware attack has knocked-out the management information system (MIS) at Jawaharlal Nehru Port Container Terminal (JNPCT), one of five marine facilities in India’s top container gateway of JNPT (Nhava Sheva).

“Effect of cyber attack on Gold Bond will last for weeks,” warns expert

The Gold Bond Group, which operates a cargo and warehouse terminal in the port of Ashdod, informed the stock exchange yesterday that a cyber attack had shut down the company's computers and as a result a large part of its operations had been shut down. According to the announcement, disruptions that started at night were apparently identified as a foreign entity penetrating the systems. According to what is known, this is not a ransomware attack, but a deliberate attempt to disrupt the company's activities and possibly even steal information. The company stressed that they were not required to pay a ransom. The company also said that it is working with the National Cyber Directorate to thwart the incident.

The hackers posted photos from security cameras as well as of the company's alleged internal computer systems. The obvious conclusion is that the intrusion is probably much more severe than the company is trying to present.

So in a matter of days, 2 logistical companies and a port hit by cyberattacks, which will affect the flow of goods in very specific patterns, undetectable for many, but you can easily track down its cascade effects by seeing what type of product/companies they deal with.

UK foreign ministry suffered serious cyber attack earlier this year - documents

That is not the only angle to be played. Now, more than ever the common man has the power to disrupt systems at will, and non-state actor will exploit past grievances to shift specific pieces on the board toward their goals.

There are many trends developing right now, and it is about to get complex at breaking neck speed, I recommend the read to keep notes, either on paper (my preferred method) or digitally.

Events this week will set the tone not for the year, but half the decade.

In Food Scarcity and Water wars, besides the massive shortage of Potash about to hit the planet, I mentioned the growing prospect of Water Wars, among the aforementioned, here we see the birth of a potential new one.

Iran-Afghanistan water dispute to test Tehran's ties to Taliban

 

 

[Sugarlips]

Oh and Turkey just printed 54% Inflation 

May we live in interesting times...

 

[HousePriceMania]

33 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Crunched some data on oil spike impact, all assuming 55 litre petrol tank and UK tax regime.

$100 oil : £83.02 1.50/litre

$200 oil: £124.60 2.26/litre

47% increase which is going to sting a bit.

2.26/litre, £2 in tax ?

[HousePriceMania]

1 minute ago, Sugarlips said:

 

 

Ever get the feeling people have trying to destroy America.

When they have printed $5Tn and keeping it's at 0%, it's a sign of weakness, not strength. 

Maybe the rest of the world smell blood.

WW3 could be coming.

[geordie_lurch]

10 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

WW3 could be coming started late 2019 / early 2020 under 'Covid' via a new type of Hybrid warfare

FTFY

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep,Florida,Texas ans states with the most 30 to 55 year olds,they will have more credit.These things im seeing are the START of a credit cycle,not the end,the inflation isnt transient,someone tell the BOE,thats what those Fed minutes mean.

ETF of regional banks will be likely moving up,insiders will know.

Ah, lots of US regional banks were popping up on my screen last week.  I flagged them all as macro unfriendly!  Whoops?

[HousePriceMania]

Oh, ya c***.

 

I wish I could find that message that says my order at 100 was too low.

 

 

 

 EVRAZ plc

54.80 GBX−5.20 (8.67%)today

3 Mar, 13:41 GMT • Disclaimer

LON: EVR

 

 

 

 

 

 

When's

[Harley]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

.....

Will we hear the pitter patter of Chinese boots down the line?

I have had, for a long time, premonitionary flashes of someone sitting at the end of my kitchen table.  It cycles between a Russian and a Chinaman!

[ThoughtCriminal]

19 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

Oh and Turkey just printed 54% Inflation 

May we live in interesting times...

 

Was just about to post that about Saudi Arabia.

 

Bearing in mind the crown prince actually runs the place.

 

Imagine him saying that a few years ago? Unthinkable.

 

Lots of important players making it clear to America: we've had enough of your shit, we're not interested, get fucked.

[HousePriceMania]

When's the EVRAZ EX-DIV date ?   

Div yield

196.39%

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

All the problems will be blamed on Russia even though the war is only a part of the cause.

WEF (election due) Macron already did yesterday, especially those problems to come (like rising inflation that was, er, already here)!

[moneyscam]

Just heard on Bloomberg Germany saying opposed to oil embargo on Russia as this would threaten social peace in Germany. Bit late now, there is already an effective oil embargo to the west practically, that's what the oil price is telling you. You broke it, you fix it.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

 

As per @Castlevania said,they're not banning UK listed stocks-yet.

I do wonder besides the odd basment dweller,whetehr the Russians are buying it all back on the cheap.....

The Russian Government have apparently set aside US$10 billion for “Plunge Protection”/buy up everything on the cheap purposes.

[HousePriceMania]

8 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

When's the EVRAZ EX-DIV date ?   

Div yield

196.39%

Ex-div date

23 Dec 2021 (Thu)

10 Mar 2022 (Thu )

 

 

I'm holding this just for the giggles.  Wonder what'll happen next.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

These two on the other hand

 

 

will be viewed historically as a para-cunts we cant shift.

"The Board has full confidence in the CEO and his team at this difficult time".