Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[BadAlchemy]

13 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

POLY just delisted from FTSE according to Bloomberg on youtube.

Panic ye not (yet). I believe Poly and Evraz are iust leaving the FTSE 100 ( to be replaced by Howden and Endeavour Mining). They would still be listed on the LSE.

Also the Reuters article someone posted above only mentions 'suspension' and 'halting', not delisting. Quite different things...

https://speedtrader.com/introduction-trade-halts-suspensions-de-listing/

[Democorruptcy]

2 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-10566343/Russian-firms-Evraz-Polymetal-face-boot-FTSE-shares-dive.html

 

Russian stocks facing the boot from FTSE 100

 

Bloody Chinese Russian whispers.

That was yesterday's news, the way they just said it now sounded different, the word 'delisted' was definitely mentioned. Either she got it wrong or I misheard it. It still seems to be there on HL.

[Cosmic]

Gazprom listed as a 100% loss on ii. Oops.

Interesting lesson to be learnt in seeing how this plays out and what happens to stocks in this scenario.

[Sidd]

As it stands they have just gone through the quarterly rotation due to their share price's tanking. If they ever recover their gains they could make there way back into the FTSE100.

[Majorpain]

Coal doesn't affect UK much, but it does for rest of the world.  Energy is going to be a real problem.

[Castlevania]

42 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Real reduction 99% certain on houses,nominal likely in bubble areas.Building costs will increase,but there could be a lot of buildings changed to housing.Consumers will remain behind the curve i think.Easy to get a job,but less spending power.

Should add i think the Fed is right here IF what i see in those comments is right.No QT yet,rates slowly lifting.

I dont want shooting here,but its hugely bullish for mid sized regional banks in the US 

 

What do you define as mid sized? The US has hundreds of banks in all shapes and sizes.

[Noallegiance]

4 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Coal doesn't affect UK much, but it does for rest of the world.  Energy is going to be a real problem.

 

[Ma2]

Expect this will be becoming more common across the globe -

Sri Lanka Critical Power Supply Shortages

- Sri Lanka has been experiencing increasingly frequent power interruptions over the last few weeks

 - These power cuts are as a result of a shortage of fuel for thermal power generation and low reservoirs limiting hydro power generation

- Rolling power cuts have been occuring where power will be switched off by regions and times in order to preserve supplies

 - New longer power cuts commenced on 2nd March for 7.5 hours a day (5 hours during the day and 2.5 hours during the night)

 - Currently government efforts are being made to resolve the financial crisis which will help to stabilise access to fuel, but this timeline is unknown

 - A 37,300 tonne shipment of diesel was scheduled to arrive at Colombo Port on 2 March from Singapore, with a second shipment carrying gasoline and jet fue expected on 4 March. With these new supplies some stability and access to fuel should ease the current local constraints but changes in planned power cut scehdules remain unknown.

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Remember the discussion, as at the time I was also reading Rickards book. Together, and watching this podcast has got me thinking...perhaps this whole situation is now leading to the US$ being surplanted by a Russian/Sino  based currency replacement, base on the Chinese CBDC [hence recent outlawing of DigCurr miners in China], and backed by physical gold and/or oil resources?...

That's what's looking likely longer term.How long it takes to kick in is the question.I'm not sure digital necessary.China would like it Russia I'm less sure.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Laugh? I nearly pissed myself.

 

I don't think many people outside of places like this forum realise what's happening.

 

The Rubicon has been crossed. We aren't going back to life as it was.

 

The BRICS, led by China and Russia, are making their move. This will be viewed historically as a paradigm shift.

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

This will be viewed historically as a paradigm shift.

These two on the other hand

 

 

will be viewed historically as a para-cunts we cant shift.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Probably need to do some work on the regions. Texas, Florida, Arizona seem obvious.

Yep,Florida,Texas ans states with the most 30 to 55 year olds,they will have more credit.These things im seeing are the START of a credit cycle,not the end,the inflation isnt transient,someone tell the BOE,thats what those Fed minutes mean.

ETF of regional banks will be likely moving up,insiders will know.

[moneyscam]

49 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Coal doesn't affect UK much, but it does for rest of the world.  Energy is going to be a real problem.

 

21 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Laugh? I nearly pissed myself.

 

I don't think many people outside of places like this forum realise what's happening.

 

The Rubicon has been crossed. We aren't going back to life as it was.

 

The BRICS, led by China and Russia, are making their move. This will be viewed historically as a paradigm shift.

We can isolate Russia financially from the western system but we can't isolate ourselves from the consequences of that. Massive inflationary shock incoming while fundamental plumbing of western system is seriously challenged and maybe even dismantled by BRICS. This is way beyond Ukraine for me and has the feel of 2008. Serious cascades and network effects in the offing. Market already beginning to sniff the first weak link is Euro sovereign debt market when ECB forced to raise rates to stem inflationary wave. Euro fx beginning to reflect this as are Euro bank stocks.

A hysterical EU and public for 'team Ukraine' are going to get slapped by a serious dose of reality that not even the MSM will be able to hide.

[DurhamBorn]

38 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

What do you define as mid sized? The US has hundreds of banks in all shapes and sizes.

The biggest regional banks for states etc ,i havent gone through them yet,gardening 

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Majorpain said:

No, but it would become difficult to sell until they relisted on an exchange somewhere.  With an effective boycott of Russian oil, resulting in it heading to $200+ a barrel, I do think that the regulators are going to have more important things to worry about however, like the financial system starting to implode.

Interesting times,we're in the hole for some recent 'Russian' purchases but must say with oil running ,like you say,most of the West is going to have a different set of problems when/if people purchase food/fuel ahead of paying their mortgages.

I think this is a massive can of worms getting opened ref the USD froma historical perspective and quite what the world will look like without the US protecting us in the UK,I don't know.

It's weird,I'm talking to friends at the mo and they're all about the Ukraine(which don't get me wrong, its tragic what's going on) and generally running the MSM line  which is that we need to get in there.As a basement dweller,I'm more aware of the nuance and I msut say,what terrifies me is what comes after the Ukraine if the world order as I've known it for fifty years gets upended.

Will we hear the pitter patter of Chinese boots down the line?

[M S E Refugee]

1 minute ago, moneyscam said:

 

We can isolate Russia financially from the western system but we can't isolate ourselves from the consequences of that. Massive inflationary shock incoming while fundamental plumbing of western system is seriously challenged and maybe even dismantled by BRICS. This is way beyond Ukraine for me and has the feel of 2008. Serious cascades and network effects in the offing. Market already beginning to sniff the first weak link is Euro sovereign debt market when ECB forced to raise rates to stem inflationary wave. Euro fx beginning to reflects this as are Euro banks.

A hysterical EU and public for 'team Ukraine' are going to get slapped by a serious dose of reality that not even the MSM will be able to hide.

Yes it's horrifying watching people unknowingly cheering on their own demise.

[Noallegiance]

 

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

 

Good listen, i just finished it

[HousePriceMania]

19 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Yes it's horrifying watching people unknowingly cheering on their own demise.

If Russia wanted to destory the West, he's played a blinder.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

20 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Interesting times,we're in the hole for some recent 'Russian' purchases but must say with oil running ,like you say,most of the West is going to have a different set of problems when/if people purchase food/fuel ahead of paying their mortgages.

I think this is a massive can of worms getting opened ref the USD froma historical perspective and quite what the world will look like without the US protecting us in the UK,I don't know.

It's weird,I'm talking to friends at the mo and they're all about the Ukraine(which don't get me wrong, its tragic what's going on) and generally running the MSM line  which is that we need to get in there.As a basement dweller,I'm more aware of the nuance and I msut say,what terrifies me is what comes after the Ukraine if the world order as I've known it for fifty years gets upended.

Will we hear the pitter patter of Chinese boots down the line?

All the problems will be blamed on Russia even though the war is only a part of the cause.

[Loki]

21 minutes ago, moneyscam said:

A hysterical EU and public for 'team Ukraine' are going to get slapped by a serious dose of reality that not even the MSM will be able to hide

Most people want comfortable lies, MSM won't even break a sweat

[Arthur Dent]

Just been talking to my wife about this very thing. Whether it’s covid, global warming or Ukraine immediately the media push out the message people are out there waving flags(or masks as appropriate 😀) with no thought whatever for an alternative narrative. And if you happen to put forward a different angle you will at minimum be blocked or possibly even lynched. It’s depressing to see.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, dnb24 said:

Germany creates €100billion fund for their armed forces

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-27/scholz-says-germany-to-create-special-eu100b-armed-forces-fund
 

What military industrial complex?

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its in here,it means rate increases first no QT yet.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2022/log220302

The principles start by affirming that the FOMC sees changes in the target range for the federal funds rate as its primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy, and that reducing the balance sheet will occur after the process of raising the target range has begun.

The FOMC is committed to maintaining sufficient reserves to ensure that administered rates—the interest on reserve balances (IORB) and overnight reverse repo facility (ON RRP) rates—exercise control over the federal funds rate.  

 I am confident that administered rates will again be effective at lifting the federal funds rate when the Committee increases the target range. 

The issue I have with all of these monetary policy instruments eg Fed Funds rate,is that they need willing borrowers and quite simply,if we have a seismic debt deflation or geo politcal event that creates uncertainty,then the Fed may not have what it needs.

I also wonder,where the IOER gets raised as part of the effort to target the Fed Funds Rate,whether we might see banks parking reserves at the Fed?

What's interesting for me( and I've had to reread and think through your above posts on the FFR) is what happens when the old instruments stop working.

Hence,I'm with your previous thinking that fiscal stimulus will replace willing debtors if necessary.

2 hours ago, Pip321 said:

And yet Poly has plummeted ANOTHER 30% this morning. 

Probably those pesky Norwegians selling, that will show those ruskies. However it is probably the oligarchs buying Russian businesses for a fraction of their net asset values….Norway may as well just make a donation straight to Russia😉

Never mind….it's good to look good.🤦🏻‍♂️

As per @Castlevania said,they're not banning UK listed stocks-yet.

I do wonder besides the odd basment dweller,whetehr the Russians are buying it all back on the cheap.....

[DoINeedOne]

Problem with Twitter and media they are quick to post and use words like dumped, kicked out, deleted which all sound very dramatic 

#Poly I have built my position and now I wait 

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Not much use if the market opens down 30% on the prior day close

it's ok, I've been liquidated already 

And I was out so I couldn't buy back that 'double dip'