Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Pip321]

31 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I hope you bought £1m worth

 

Market Summary > EVRAZ plc

73.68 GBX+13.68 (22.80%)toda

And yet Poly has plummeted ANOTHER 30% this morning. 

Probably those pesky Norwegians selling, that will show those ruskies. However it is probably the oligarchs buying Russian businesses for a fraction of their net asset values….Norway may as well just make a donation straight to Russia😉

Never mind….it's good to look good.🤦🏻‍♂️

[DurhamBorn]

Should add,it should mean rates are going up while the money base is maintained at a high level.Those who think rates will stay down and QT do the job are wrong.Fed doesnt want to bring down inflation to 2% etc,it wants to stop it exploding and settle for 4% longer term and an elevated money base.The action around reverse repo etc is to force out liquidity into the economy alongside Fed funds rate increases.

 

[nirvana]

7 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Give it a week

have u heard of a stop loss? I can't lose now, but thanks for your concern 

[Democorruptcy]

54 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Talk of delisting Russian shares in London. Don't know what happens then. Do they just steal them?

IG have a bit about delisting but it's more about them going private or having financial problems, not war sanctions! Ask your provider? They might know or can guess!

https://www.ig.com/uk/trading-strategies/what-happens-if-a-stock-is-delisted-210922

[kibuc]

4 minutes ago, nirvana said:

have u heard of a stop loss? I can't lose now, but thanks for your concern 

I think I heard about it once, something along the lines of "fucking HL didn't execute my fucking stop loss".

[Festival]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Looking at the FED obvious now that they will be increasing rates but no reverse QE,liquidity is going to stay very high.They will force out the money from repo going forward to banks to stimulate lending.To do that they will need to increase the interest on reserve balances,likely by more than the market expects.Increasing the interest on reserve balances will encourage money to move out into the real economy.I think velocity has bottomed for a cycle now.

Signals are saying this is the START of a credit cycle,curve is rolling back real debt,but credit should enter the economy.Money in reverse repo should start to turn back.Only question now is how high  the FED needs to go with rates on reserve balances to force the issue.

So a real reduction in house prices but not a nominal reduction? As velocity increases inflation will become embedded in the system with power moving further to producers and away from consumers?

[HousePriceMania]

I love you Repsol

 

 Repsol SA

12.57 EUR+1.36 (12.11%)past 5 days

 

1 minute ago, Festival said:

So a real reduction in house prices but not a nominal reduction? As velocity increases inflation will become embedded in the system with power moving further to producers and away from consumers?

They're robbing peoples savings to keep the banks solvent.  I suspect this was always the plan.

Their balances sheets must look viable now post 2008.

[jamtomorrow]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

GDRs are negotiable certificates issued by a bank which represent shares in a foreign company but traded locally

"Represent" - what an interesting word in this particular sentence.

Does it mean "everyone agrees are as good as"? I think it used to until about 1 week ago.

What does it mean today? What will it mean tomorrow?

Everyone here know how to play the Keynesian Beauty Contest?

[Democorruptcy]

16 minutes ago, nirvana said:

have u heard of a stop loss? I can't lose now, but thanks for your concern 

Bloomberg just said the frogs are confiscating yachts owned by oilygarchs. You might be able to negotiate a discount on a your yacht now, in a trickle down effect?

[geordie_lurch]

5 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Bloomberg just said the frogs are confiscating yachts owned by oilygarchs. You might be able to negotiate a discount on a your yacht now, in a trickle down effect?

I'd heard from a friend who is down that way that Abramovich got his plane(s) out of that area just before Ukraine was invaded but not sure about his yacht(s).

EDIT This guy built Twitter bots to track all Oligarchs jets as well as Elon Musk amongst others

 

[Democorruptcy]

Vanguard own $2bn, Blackrock $1.5bn in Russian sanctioned stocks. Europe asset managers have $13bn in total.

[wherebee]

3 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Bloomberg just said the frogs are confiscating yachts owned by oilygarchs. You might be able to negotiate a discount on a your yacht now, in a trickle down effect?

people cheering this on should realise that next year it will be them, for crimes against the environment.

[HousePriceMania]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

Vanguard own $2bn, Blackrock $1.5bn in Russian sanctioned stocks. Europe asset managers have $13bn in total.

Just read some tweets about how the US are buying $50M of oil from Russia every day....

 

When the send me my call up papers I'll be dipping them in Castrol GTX and sending them back

2 minutes ago, wherebee said:

people cheering this on should realise that next year it will be them, for crimes against the environment.

or for speaking out on the internet.

Wasn't the UK government bringing in that very law this year ?

[Noallegiance]

https://uk.investing.com/news/economy/euro-zone-unemployment-at-record-lows-producer-prices-show-record-jump-yy-2597165

[Democorruptcy]

3 minutes ago, wherebee said:

people cheering this on should realise that next year it will be them, for crimes against the environment.

@nirvana will have sailed away in it by then.

[DurhamBorn]

22 minutes ago, Festival said:

So a real reduction in house prices but not a nominal reduction? As velocity increases inflation will become embedded in the system with power moving further to producers and away from consumers?

Real reduction 99% certain on houses,nominal likely in bubble areas.Building costs will increase,but there could be a lot of buildings changed to housing.Consumers will remain behind the curve i think.Easy to get a job,but less spending power.

Should add i think the Fed is right here IF what i see in those comments is right.No QT yet,rates slowly lifting.

I dont want shooting here,but its hugely bullish for mid sized regional banks in the US 

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

36 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

IG have a bit about delisting but it's more about them going private or having financial problems, not war sanctions! Ask your provider? They might know or can guess!

https://www.ig.com/uk/trading-strategies/what-happens-if-a-stock-is-delisted-210922

The rulebook has been lost. Or burned.

We will see what happens.

[Democorruptcy]

1 minute ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

The rulebook has been lost. Or burned.

We will see what happens.

POLY just delisted from FTSE according to Bloomberg on youtube.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I dont want shooting here,but its hugely bullish for mid sized regional banks in the US 

Probably need to do some work on the regions. Texas, Florida, Arizona seem obvious.

[23rdian]

45 minutes ago, kibuc said:

I think I heard about it once, something along the lines of "fucking HL didn't execute my fucking stop loss".

Yes you ask for a price you would like to get out at, and they execute at ANY price under it.

[23rdian]

10 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

POLY just delisted from FTSE according to Bloomberg on youtube.

Fucksticks. This means it's all over for us?

[HousePriceMania]

11 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

POLY just delisted from FTSE according to Bloomberg on youtube.

Do you mean, kicked out of the FTSE 100 ?

[Democorruptcy]

8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Real reduction 99% certain on houses,nominal likely in bubble areas.Building costs will increase,but there could be a lot of buildings changed to housing.Consumers will remain behind the curve i think.Easy to get a job,but less spending power.

Should add i think the Fed is right here IF what i see in those comments is right.No QT yet,rates slowly lifting.

I dont want shooting here,but its hugely bullish for mid sized regional banks in the US 

 

Partly depends on wages doesn't it? If it's easy to get a job it should mean pay rises to leverage up on mortgages, minus increased living costs. In the 70's inflation when we had more unions with pay demands, you needed to buy an house because prices were rising. That was with more sensible 3x main income lending, before interest only and BTL, not our 'no more than 15% of mortgages at more than 4.5x' joint income now.

[HousePriceMania]

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-10566343/Russian-firms-Evraz-Polymetal-face-boot-FTSE-shares-dive.html

 

Russian stocks facing the boot from FTSE 100

 

Bloody Chinese Russian whispers.

[Castlevania]

58 minutes ago, nirvana said:

have u heard of a stop loss? I can't lose now, but thanks for your concern 

Not much use if the market opens down 30% on the prior day close