Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[wherebee]

Sure if they keep printing, two things accelerate:
 

1. general inflation.  fiat collapse gets closer
2. assets and markets boom as everyone tries to get out of fiat

[MrXxxx]

FYI [Credit cycle]

https://www.schroders.com/en/sysglobalassets/digital/insights/pdfs/14-11-2014-mr.pdf

[Lightscribe]

10 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

What on earth does bogged mean anyway, sorry if this discussed before, i cant find it

Bogged

A state in which one's crypto trades go so poorly as to be explainable only by the intervention of an omniscientand likely malevolent entity

I bought Ethereum at 1300$ and it crashed to 300$ two days later, I think I just got bogged.

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Bogged&amp=true

 

central bankers vs crypto global domination meme

 

Better explained in visual form - RIP Bogdanoff bros 

 

 

[Majorpain]

10 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

What on earth does bogged mean anyway, sorry if this discussed before, i cant find it

Bogged is a crypto meme about a shadowy financial broker who manipulates behind the scenes to ruin someone's trades.  

 

[nirvana]

BREAKING: I'm buying EVRAZ sub 60 but it's a fooking mare getting filled

Why am I doing this? If Abramovich can have a fooking yacht so can I 

YOLO BROS!!!!

[geordie_lurch]

A very good article on Zerohedge here I think with the following details something I have not seen mentioned elsewhere...

Luongo: Opening Salvos Thrown, What Are Putin's Next Steps In Ukraine?

"They have to neutralize the financial war waged against them and create an environment where Europe spends money it doesn’t have, with failing political capital domestically, and bankrupts them completely.

And the first move along those lines was just announced by the Russian Finance Ministry today (VPN and Deepl translator needed)."

"What does this mean? It means simply that Russia has now, in effect, begun the remonetization of gold for domestic purposes. By removing the VAT on gold purchases Russian citizens can now offset their currency risk with gold and stabilize the domestic monetary situation.

The first step in offsetting financial warfare from the West is allowing the domestic population to be immune to collapses in their currency from foreign actors pulling capital out of the country. Companies doing international business now have an alternative to hold time deposits which are far less volatile than the ruble without penalty. Gold becomes the coin of Russia’s international business.

It’s the beginning of the process of draining physical gold from the global market and control over its price by the ponzi schemes that are the COMEX and the LBMA."

[Democorruptcy]

2 minutes ago, nirvana said:

BREAKING: I'm buying EVRAZ sub 60 but it's a fooking mare getting filled

Why am I doing this? If Abramovich can have a fooking yacht so can I 

YOLO BROS!!!!

Where are you getting on? HL is requote hell for any Russkies and IG are only allowing existing positions to be closed. 

[MrXxxx]

28 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Bogged is a crypto meme about a shadowy financial broker who manipulates behind the scenes to ruin someone's trades.  

 

Does this mean we have our very own 'In house' bogger in the form of @Yellow_Reduced_Sticker?

[Festival]

20 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I wouldn't time too much of the specific moves as the sample is small and particualrly with reference to the US yield curve given how active the Fed has been over the last ten years(I'm not sure it has the predictive power it used to),what I'd use it for is as a warning to be careful and reassess your risk profile as the oil price moves up.

There are no guarantees of a BK deflationary wave and subsequent market crash,but the basement hive mind is switched onto the possiblity that Hussman might be finally right.

I'm not ready for selling up yet /moving short,but this oil price definitely feels like it will haev an impact on demand and that's aside from broader geo political uncertainty.

I note what you say but 10 year vs 2 year yield curve inversion has a phenomenal predictive record for stock market crashes as does spikes in the oil price.  The two together would be enough for me to go risk off for a period.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

13 minutes ago, nirvana said:

BREAKING: I'm buying EVRAZ sub 60 but it's a fooking mare getting filled

Why am I doing this? If Abramovich can have a fooking yacht so can I 

YOLO BROS!!!!

Talk of delisting Russian shares in London. Don't know what happens then. Do they just steal them?

[Majorpain]

10 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Talk of delisting Russian shares in London. Don't know what happens then. Do they just steal them?

No, but it would become difficult to sell until they relisted on an exchange somewhere.  With an effective boycott of Russian oil, resulting in it heading to $200+ a barrel, I do think that the regulators are going to have more important things to worry about however, like the financial system starting to implode.

[Barnsey]

1 minute ago, Majorpain said:

No, but it would become difficult to sell until they relisted on an exchange somewhere.  With an effective boycott of Russian oil, resulting in it heading to $200+ a barrel, I do think that the regulators are going to have more important things to worry about however, like the financial system starting to implode.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/london-stock-exchange-suspends-trading-several-gdrs-russian-firms-2022-03-03/

March 3 (Reuters) - The London Stock Exchange said on Thursday it had suspended with immediate effect the trading of global depository receipts (GDRs) of several Russia-based companies including Rosneft, Sberbank, Gazprom, En+ and Lukoil.

The LSE has 24 companies incorporated in Russia trading on its bourse, of which 17 are suspended. GDRs are negotiable certificates issued by a bank which represent shares in a foreign company but traded locally.

However, the ban also affected a number of other Russian companies such as En+ which is incorporated in the United Kingdom.

"Further to recent sanctions in connection with events in Ukraine, in light of market conditions, and in order to maintain orderly markets, the London Stock Exchange has suspended the admission to trading of the instruments ...with immediate effect," the LSE said in a statement.

[Castlevania]

14 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Talk of delisting Russian shares in London. Don't know what happens then. Do they just steal them?

I think they’re referring to the ADRs and GDSs of the likes of Rosneft and Gazprom. 

[Harley]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Looking at the FED obvious now that they will be increasing rates but no reverse QE,liquidity is going to stay very high.They will force out the money from repo going forward to banks to stimulate lending.To do that they will need to increase the interest on reserve balances,likely by more than the market expects.Increasing the interest on reserve balances will encourage money to move out into the real economy.I think velocity has bottomed for a cycle now.

Signals are saying this is the START of a credit cycle,curve is rolling back real debt,but credit should enter the economy.Money in reverse repo should start to turn back.Only question now is how high  the FED needs to go with rates on reserve balances to force the issue.

Ta.  I got the first sentence. As for the rest, I'm not sure if I'm thick or just have an allergy!

[DurhamBorn]

9 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Thanks DB, how might this change the roadmap? Any new glaring unintended consequences?

It doesnt i dont think,im going to do some work on it once i finish sorting the garden,i like to get things done early March,the frogs have arrived in the pond so things will be starting to grow.

Easy quick thoughts though,bad for house prices etc,good for inflation loving assets because rate increases hit them very slowly as bonds roll over.

Fed needs to get the reverse repo liquidity into the economy.Best way is increasing deposit rates because banks will then start to lend,they make more profit then lending.Iv been reading the Fed minutes etc and although they dont say it thats what it means.

The want to control inflation by forcing out investment into the economy.Now people will think,but that will mean higher inflation,not quite,it will mean higher BASE inflation,3% to 4% the new norm,but will turn the top of the inflation so top out at around 8.5% rather than 12%.They are going to stretch the inflation across the cycle,accept 4% base (but not say it) ,force out reverse repo through rate increases (not sure yet how high to force it out,il be looking at that) and let the economy re-tool,re-invest.

I think here the No1 though on the Feds minds is how high do rates need to go to force out this repo liquidity onto banks balance sheets then lending?.

So no QT (not QE though,they want to force out/increase velocity of whats in reverse repo) and rate increases.

 

[nirvana]

30 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Where are you getting on? HL is requote hell for any Russkies and IG are only allowing existing positions to be closed. 

yeah HL SIPP so I can sit on em for a while and paddle around in my dinghy if necessary 

if it spikes up I'll probs sell, I know it's a gamble on a 'quick resolution' to this Ukraine bollox.....

 

[dnb24]

Germany creates €100billion fund for their armed forces

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-27/scholz-says-germany-to-create-special-eu100b-armed-forces-fund
 

[Noallegiance]

6 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

Germany creates €100billion fund for their armed forces

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-27/scholz-says-germany-to-create-special-eu100b-armed-forces-fund
 

What do they say to get this?

"Hey presto"?

I might try it. Log onto my bank account and stare it while chanting. My balance should go up. 

[HousePriceMania]

58 minutes ago, nirvana said:

BREAKING: I'm buying EVRAZ sub 60 but it's a fooking mare getting filled

Why am I doing this? If Abramovich can have a fooking yacht so can I 

YOLO BROS!!!!

I hope you bought £1m worth

 

Market Summary > EVRAZ plc

73.68 GBX+13.68 (22.80%)toda

[nirvana]

EVRAZ bouncing on news that the big boys are finally buying in 

 

[DurhamBorn]

Its in here,it means rate increases first no QT yet.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2022/log220302

The principles start by affirming that the FOMC sees changes in the target range for the federal funds rate as its primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy, and that reducing the balance sheet will occur after the process of raising the target range has begun.

The FOMC is committed to maintaining sufficient reserves to ensure that administered rates—the interest on reserve balances (IORB) and overnight reverse repo facility (ON RRP) rates—exercise control over the federal funds rate.  

 I am confident that administered rates will again be effective at lifting the federal funds rate when the Committee increases the target range. 

[Transistor Man]

14 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

Germany creates €100billion fund for their armed forces

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-27/scholz-says-germany-to-create-special-eu100b-armed-forces-fund
 

I always thought: BAE should have kept H&K.

[HousePriceMania]

4 minutes ago, nirvana said:

EVRAZ bouncing on news that the big boys are finally buying in 

 

Give it a week

 

[HousePriceMania]

@nirvana I've put in my Evraz buy order for £100 at 55.

I really hope I dont get them.

It saves me a walk to the bookies