Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[TNS]

3 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

So nobody can find anywhere to buy OGZD, but it's gone from an open of 0.72, down to 0.019, to a current price of 0.58.  Who's buying to lift the price?

Putin ? 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

3 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

So nobody can find anywhere to buy OGZD, but it's gone from an open of 0.72, down to 0.019, to a current price of 0.58.  Who's buying to lift the price?

I did see it available but restricted by the intermediary, whatever that means.

[Pip321]

Thanks...Fish and Chip night so I have done the fence, had a nap and caught up on this great thread. 

Biden comments yesterday to Putin 'you have no idea what's coming'.....I think I am in the same position then because I have no idea either.

Great to be strong US leader but Putin is ex KGB, a bit angry, has influence and might be a bit unstable so my starting point would be to show massive strength but respect. Even if any idiot could tell my respect was not real. 

Not sure who is winning this whole battle financially.....I suspect Putin and the West have both over played their hands and pride will ensure we all get shafted. Apart from the top 1% of course.

Financially this would all make sense if markets across the world were down 20% but this feels very contrived and I still have a sneaky feeling there are people buying good businesses out there which on paper look cheap but in reality will be productive wealth creators in the future. Of course that doesn't mean shareholders will benefit. 

 

[HousePriceMania]

51 minutes ago, Harley said:

I'll second that as a long term user.  I've just opened an ISA as well.  IB is not for everyone though as the interfaces and functionality can be overwhelming.  How did you find that and what platform do you use?  I mainly use the Android app on a tablet as, amongst other things, it provides a portfolio valuation in GBP.

I use the web interface and I'm happy with it. I'm more daunted with how easy it is to invest on margin. I basically have a low interest loan for investment purposes of a quarter of a million quid with very little checks. 

I won't use most of the investment options

[reformed nice guy]

7 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

So nobody can find anywhere to buy OGZD, but it's gone from an open of 0.72, down to 0.019, to a current price of 0.58.  Who's buying to lift the price?

should have been me! I had my ladders ready to go

[reformed nice guy]

2 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Not sure who is winning this whole battle financially....

 

China. If the west refuse Russian o&g then they get cut it for a reduced price. This solves their energy problem in the short to medium, if not long, term

[HousePriceMania]

51 minutes ago, Harley said:

I'll second that as a long term user.  I've just opened an ISA as well.  IB is not for everyone though as the interfaces and functionality can be overwhelming.  How did you find that and what platform do you use?  I mainly use the Android app on a tablet as, amongst other things, it provides a portfolio valuation in GBP.

I use the web interface and I'm happy with it. I'm more daunted with how easy it is to invest on margin. I basically have a low interest loan for investment purposes of a quarter of a million quid with very little checks. 

I won't use most of the investment options

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, sancho panza said:

That bit in bold is starting to loom up in the background as a reason/consequence for what's going on.People in the West think their govts are in charge of this situation.I'm not so sure.If Gromen;s right then the Chinese are currently swapping yaun for Russian gas/oil.

 

I don't know if you remember but about two years or more back we had an excellent discussion down ehre about the dollar and the conclusion was that the dollar had one crisis left in it.It's playing out.If you haven't watched that Gromen vid DB then I'd reccomend it.Nothing you don't already know I guess but brings it all together under one roof so to speak.

He talks a lot about how these oil price rises are the beginning of a long cycle of rises and price inflation more generally.I speak as someone who was a committed deflationist until I listened to your reasoning and luckily,it got me postioning for it before it arrived.Thanks for your efforts.

Remember the discussion, as at the time I was also reading Rickards book. Together, and watching this podcast has got me thinking...perhaps this whole situation is now leading to the US$ being surplanted by a Russian/Sino  based currency replacement, base on the Chinese CBDC [hence recent outlawing of DigCurr miners in China], and backed by physical gold and/or oil resources?...

[Bobthebuilder]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60593983

 

[Chewing Grass]

2 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60593983

 

Quote: 'Speaking in front of Congress, Jerome Powell said he's in favour of a 0.25 point increase, aimed at tackling the surging cost of living'

So how does that work when the worlds up to its eyeballs in credit and Energy Inflation in double if not triple digits.

[Noallegiance]

5 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Quote: 'Speaking in front of Congress, Jerome Powell said he's in favour of a 0.25 point increase, aimed at tackling the surging cost of living'

So how does that work when the worlds up to its eyeballs in credit and Energy Inflation in double if not triple digits.

To fight price rises rates need to be at 9%.

#token

[HousePriceMania]

50 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Thanks...Fish and Chip night so I have done the fence, had a nap and caught up on this great thread. 

Biden comments yesterday to Putin 'you have no idea what's coming'.....I think I am in the same position then because I have no idea either.

Great to be strong US leader but Putin is ex KGB, a bit angry, has influence and might be a bit unstable so my starting point would be to show massive strength but respect. Even if any idiot could tell my respect was not real. 

Not sure who is winning this whole battle financially.....I suspect Putin and the West have both over played their hands and pride will ensure we all get shafted. Apart from the top 1% of course.

Financially this would all make sense if markets across the world were down 20% but this feels very contrived and I still have a sneaky feeling there are people buying good businesses out there which on paper look cheap but in reality will be productive wealth creators in the future. Of course that doesn't mean shareholders will benefit. 

 

The Russians wont give a f***

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Stalingrad

[MrXxxx]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

Interesting as mine too () but I didn't like the company fundamentals.

Agree, the impression I got was they are a bit of a 'rudderless ship' at the moment.

[Loki]

Stolen from Zerohedge comments

Quote

So Netflix, which loses $2b a year and has never turned a profit, is worth $100s of billions, but petro-giants cranking out a few million barrels a day (most of it NOT inside Russian territory) is worth only 2% of what is was worth a week ago. Good to know

 

[Spiney Norman]

20 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

To fight price rises rates need to be at 9%.

If rates were at 9% I could retire tomorrow...

[Don Coglione]

Just now, Spiney Norman said:

If rates were at 9% I could retire tomorrow...

Not if inflation were running at 15%...

[belfastchild]

Thought this was interesting and would share with the group ;-)
Just got an email that from 1st June all public sector tenders in NI must have 10% social scoring with aim of going to a min weighting of 20% by june 2023.

What is that you may well ask. Well fecked if I know but it has a couple of categories, two of which are delivering zero carbon and promoting wellbeing.
Not only do you have to be the cheapest in NI but you also have to walk to work (a given, probably, if you are the cheapest) and be fucking happy about it.

[Green Devil]

1 hour ago, Don Coglione said:

Not if inflation were running at 15%...

It is... 

[Shamone]

I couldn’t get a quote on OGCD from HL yesterday or Monday. Thought just with the Isa but wouldn’t give one with sipp either. Couldn’t believe it when I saw it at 0.02 today. Didn’t bother trying to get quote. Did anyone get any at that price? Chucked a couple of hundred at poly close of play Monday. Only 16% down now! 

[CannonFodder]

I see no ships

 

 

[HousePriceMania]

 

[Animal Spirits]

BIS global liquidity indicators at end-September 2021

https://www.bis.org/statistics/gli2201.htm

Key takeaways

• The global liquidity indicators (GLIs) show that financing through the bond market now accounts for as much dollar credit to EMDEs as lending from internationally active banks.
• For the first time since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, growth in dollar- and euro-denominated foreign currency credit outpaced domestic credit in the respective currency areas.

It's only up to Q3 2021 and with events in Ukraine some of these trajectories may change. The trend for bond financing instead of loans is interesting.

Brazil lending turning up, we shall see if this gathers momentum and notice the trends in Russia/South Africa and Turkey.

Yen lending down. I suspect in relation to Chinese activity with Japan being one of the main money centres in the East, we will have to see how China's credit impulse responds in 2022.

[MrXxxx]

4 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

OR...Are YOU just saying that cos you've discovered i've become a POLY holder?!

Well that's the 'kiss of death' then...just keep away from CNA, its on it's way into the big boys league now [FTSE100] hopefully! :-)))

[MrXxxx]

4 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

EDIT TO ADD!

F***ing h... POLY is ROCKETING! ...this time next year rodney!

DCB...as I said previously tomorrow and for the next 3-4 weeks [not 5-6 = typo] its going down :-(