Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

4 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

That bit in bold is starting to loom up in the background as a reason/consequence for what's going on.People in the West think their govts are in charge of this situation.I'm not so sure.If Gromen;s right then the Chinese are currently swapping yaun for Russian gas/oil.

 

I don't know if you remember but about two years or more back we had an excellent discussion down ehre about the dollar and the conclusion was that the dollar had one crisis left in it.It's playing out.If you haven't watched that Gromen vid DB then I'd reccomend it.Nothing you don't already know I guess but brings it all together under one roof so to speak.

He talks a lot about how these oil price rises are the beginning of a long cycle of rises and price inflation more generally.I speak as someone who was a committed deflationist until I listened to your reasoning and luckily,it got me postioning for it before it arrived.Thanks for your efforts.

I'm starting to buy the idea of Chinese fingerprints on this, with their control over much of the Western leaders and pushing Russia towards them and co.  That was the West's biggest geo-political mistake for a very long time, so much so you have to wonder.

[Harley]

3 minutes ago, nirvana said:

anyone bottom picking Evraz here? 

You said one post today.  I've been waiting! 

[sancho panza]

7 minutes ago, Festival said:

This info seems to imply oil will peak a number of months after the S&P has already peaked if it follows previous recessions. Given the 10 year to 2 year UST yield curve hasn't inverted yet it may be we have quite a way to go on the oil price? 

I wouldn't time too much of the specific moves as the sample is small and particualrly with reference to the US yield curve given how active the Fed has been over the last ten years(I'm not sure it has the predictive power it used to),what I'd use it for is as a warning to be careful and reassess your risk profile as the oil price moves up.

There are no guarantees of a BK deflationary wave and subsequent market crash,but the basement hive mind is switched onto the possiblity that Hussman might be finally right.

I'm not ready for selling up yet /moving short,but this oil price definitely feels like it will haev an impact on demand and that's aside from broader geo political uncertainty.

[Harley]

4 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

Support at 250 for POLY?

Considering opening a ladder.

However after reading many of @Harley's posts over the last few years I always have counterparty risk/ likelihood of return of capital on my mind. Still think there's there's chance that the shares are confiscated.

FFS, don't fecking listen to me!

[belfastchild]

1 minute ago, Hardhat said:

Support at 250 for POLY?

Considering opening a ladder.

However after reading many of @Harley's posts over the last few years I always have counterparty risk/ likelihood of return of capital on my mind. Still think there's there's chance that the shares are confiscated.

I may have mentioned before buying a mineral/commodity company during the dot.com crash. Things looked to balance out then it went private, all of a sudden, just one day, bang.
Was IIRC about 3 years before various wranglings took place. Did get my money back with a slight profit but of course the company was making shitloads in the meantime.
Its why I made my post about gambling and a few people have mentioned it in the past about the likes of BT etc, you are going well, doing fine then either bang, it gets taken over and someone else gets the profit or it goes bust, gets bought out for pennies due to overseas constraints and you get nothing and someone else gets an awful lot for not a lot.
Look at adrs etc, I see them sometimes as akin to paper silver etc. All well and good until someone decides they havent made enough money this month and take their ball away.

[sancho panza]

11 minutes ago, Harley said:

I'm starting to buy the idea of Chinese fingerprints on this, with their control over much of the Western leaders and pushing Russia towards them and co.  That was the West's biggest geo-political mistake for a very long time, so much so you have to wonder.

 

Covid,China style lockdowns,huge debt issuance by Western govts to fight a respiratory virus that spread anyway.

Then Russia invades Ukraine,oil price spike,Russia sells commodities in yuan,China finally doesn't have to compete on dollar terms.................the only winner from this tragedy is China.

It really feels like teh West has been hobbled over the last two years,but that it doesn't know it yet.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

Just now, sancho panza said:

 

Covid,China style lockdowns,huge debt issuance by Western govts to fight a respiratory virus that spread anyway.

Then Russia invades Ukraine,oil price spike,Russia sells commodities in yuan,China finally doesn't have to compete on dollar terms.................the only winner from this tragedy is China.

Not sure I dare own Chinese shares.

[ONC]

Yes, just got EVraz at 69p (£3k),  now my average is £1.13.   Really is all is nothing at this price. Hoping that Russia is playing long game and want to play ball after this is all over. Fingers crosses.

10 minutes ago, nirvana said:

anyone bottom picking Evraz here? 

@Democorruptcyyou're a shrewd gambler, tempted?

 

[nirvana]

7 minutes ago, Harley said:

You said one post today.  I've been waiting! 

sorry boss I got rained on and had to come back......missed the Gold spike down to 1912 so now I'm like the rest of the goldbugs 

[Democorruptcy]

10 minutes ago, nirvana said:

anyone bottom picking Evraz here? 

@Democorruptcyyou're a shrewd gambler, tempted?

I can't comment because we are not allowed to talk about gambling in here, or the more righteous (who lack the balls to do it) might throw their toys out of their prams again.

[Harley]

20 hours ago, Harley said:

Feck, I put a limit sell order on this week.  I only had 2% to go to break even!

PS:  Maybe it got triggered, hence the fall.  Big boy is me!

Oh yes, I can quote myself 'cause I can do anything today!  My limit sell order on the scottish play got triggered at the top yesterday before the fall (£0.785).  So I have managed to finally exit at a token profit!  After all "no div, no play"!

[Sasquatch]

Some inflation information for you all. In a way this is directly from the 'coal face'.

I've been keeping one of our key clients up to date regarding construction tender price increases. It's pretty brutal out there. Builders are picking and choosing tender opportunities and passing on all of the materials and subcontractor price increases. As far as I can tell the builders are maintaining or even increasing their margins.

Data below is from the same contractor from two very similar projects, one now completed on site, one currently on site.

Tender submission date for project 1 was December 2018. Tender date for project 2 was November 2021. Therefore a 3 year gap.

DOT type 1 hardcore supplied and laid per m3  =  50% increase

Reinforced concrete in foundations per m3  = 20% increase

Steel reinforcement mesh in concrete slabs  =  110% increase (!)

Steelwork frame per tonne supplied and erected  =  35% increase

Facing bricks supplied and laid  =  30% increase

In my 30+ year career I've never seen price rises like this.

 

 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

10 hours ago, wherebee said:

surely you want to wait a few days.  If peace talks break through this week, that POLY holding could quad in price!

 

MAYBE who knows?

 

But I think there is something else afoot here (Russian scam) and sadly for us ruskie ADS holders I think we are going to get cleaned out!

 

Last night I cancelled another BUY LIMIT and got an email confirming the cancellation. So the POLY was some f*** up at there end during volatility, cos i remember it was a job to cancel it, i kept clicking the X icon until it deleted.

 

I'm a SUCKER though because I'd still want to buy some more Gazprom - it was the share I always wanted AND now at a once in a life-time AMAZING YRS Price!

 

 

 

[Don Coglione]

1 hour ago, Jesus Wept said:

A $500bn market cap company a few months ago.

 

Now ‘worth’ $200m …..

effectively zero…

fuck….

My original £18k stake, which had all-but doubled to £35k just a few months ago, is currently worth a little less than 250 quid...

[Sasquatch]

Especially for @DurhamBorn

 

 

[Harley]

8 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

DOT type 1 hardcore supplied and laid per m3  =  50% increase

FFS!  Lucky I have bags and bags in the yard!

[Harley]

10 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

MAYBE who knows?

 

But I think there is something else afoot here (Russian scam) and sadly for us ruskie ADS holders I think we are going to get cleaned out!

 

Last night I cancelled another BUY LIMIT and got an email confirming the cancellation. So the POLY was some f*** up at there end during volatility, cos i remember it was a job to cancel it, i kept clicking the X icon until it deleted.

 

I'm a SUCKER though because I'd still want to buy some more Gazprom - it was the share I always wanted AND now at a once in a life-time AMAZING YRS Price!

 

 

 

I see no ships....

[Sidd]

So Gazprom cannot be bought on HL now?

[Plan-b]

2 minutes ago, Sidd said:

So Gazprom cannot be bought on HL now?

Or anywhere it seems....

[23rdian]

4 minutes ago, Sidd said:

So Gazprom cannot be bought on HL now?

Nor ii

[Barnsey]

NOT SHARE ADVICE but Johnson Matthey is another that's just popped up on my very interested list, 4% dividend, seems to be finding strength in recent days after being truly hated for a while.

[Majorpain]

8 minutes ago, Sidd said:

So Gazprom cannot be bought on HL now?

LSE has blocked trading the ADR for the minute until Moscow stock exchange re-opens.  ADR should be linked price wise and not having Moscow open is causing issues.

[Sidd]

 

2 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

LSE has blocked trading the ADR for the minute until Moscow stock exchange re-opens.  ADR should be linked price wise and not having Moscow open is causing issues.

Thanks, i really want to get me some at these insane prices. I will take the risk

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

WHY all the bogged reps...get a grip guys, if we lose our ruskie stocks, we'll get a consolation prize from Putoon in the form of a bevy of beauties!

 

I'm having this one, so YOU @HousePriceMania can bugger off!

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

That bit in bold is starting to loom up in the background as a reason/consequence for what's going on.People in the West think their govts are in charge of this situation.I'm not so sure.If Gromen;s right then the Chinese are currently swapping yaun for Russian gas/oil.

 

I don't know if you remember but about two years or more back we had an excellent discussion down ehre about the dollar and the conclusion was that the dollar had one crisis left in it.It's playing out.If you haven't watched that Gromen vid DB then I'd reccomend it.Nothing you don't already know I guess but brings it all together under one roof so to speak.

He talks a lot about how these oil price rises are the beginning of a long cycle of rises and price inflation more generally.I speak as someone who was a committed deflationist until I listened to your reasoning and luckily,it got me postioning for it before it arrived.Thanks for your efforts.

Most were and are clueless.Inflation is the only game in town.Governments will spend and spend,Next they will remove red tape so insurance companies and pension funds can invest more in housing for rent,energy etc etc.Its 99% certain.Dis-inflation is a bit like drugs,fags,gambling and women.You have a fantastic 20 years but then have to get back in shape or die.

The problem we have here is that, to outflank inflation we risk getting smashed in a BK.I think however low return on capital employed companies with high assets will be the best place for the bulk of holdings,then try to get some other areas that inflation might help.Thats companies with millions of customers,but small overheads and low staff levels.Its one of the reasons im laddering into the asset managers,as per Kaplan chairman and directors bought stock in Abrdn after results.

The war is just part of the cycle,its the massive investments it will help bring forward that matter.£3000 a year energy bills cant be sustained though,government needs to invest in pumped storage etc on a huge scale while getting gas from the north sea.Their planning for this has been shocking