Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[jamtomorrow]

7 hours ago, Plan-b said:

Well spotted. I saw the same user name withdraw millions of pounds worth of gold just leading up to March 2020, and then coof happened not long after. Coincidence? who knows.

I just checked on DOCTOR's holdings on the most recent audit (5 March). 183kg in Zurich, 95kg in London, 5kg NY, 24kg Toronto, 22kg Singapore.

Is it a particular location being drained, or even spread?

[Hardhat]

Looks like I might get my sub 100 entry point on POLY 

[DoINeedOne]

20 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

Looks like I might get my sub 100 entry point on POLY 

If most exchanges are only allowing selling from what someone said then it’s ridiculous and not a market 

I will just hold it for years and hopefully dividends but who knows what’s going happen

[Boon]

You can buy Poly (and Evraz) on Freetrade... if it declines keep on resubmitting the order and it should go through. 

[reformed nice guy]

4 hours ago, Heart's Ease said:

I have had basf on my bk list. Got to around €47 in March 2020 but I did not buy. Picked up first ladder at €48 something today. Agree with your comment about position in the value chain (increasing price of chemicals is something @SillyBillyhas helpfully reported on here and elsewhere). Lth.

@reformed nice guywas also sniffing around basf and waiting for it to hit €50 iirc.

Yup, I picked some up at €48.80ish as my ladder was 50.

Next ladder is €42

I liked them because they are a significant and diversified chemical producer. Too big to fail!

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, reformed nice guy said:

Yup, I picked some up at €48.80ish as my ladder was 50.

Next ladder is €42

I liked them because they are a significant and diversified chemical producer. Too big to fail!

 

[Lightscribe]

27 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

The Mighty Panther has opened up 25%!

Ahah! A faithful disciple! Your loyalty shall be rewarded. 🐆 🪙 

[kibuc]

 

Come to papa!

[Lightscribe]

35 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

My Polish mate tells me the yanks are giving them F16s, so they can give the MIGs away to pilots that are used to flying them.

Topped up my SIPP today, also transferred my cash ISA to HL SSISA.

If this is to be believed then it’s pointless. The reason the S400 and S500 have been so popular in air defence and is one of Russia’s key flagship weapons and can hit at 150km range. You won’t be able to get at them as they’ll be way behind Russian borders. 
No wonder Poland want the F-16’s as they may have been retrofitted versions that can somewhat stand a chance. That’s why the F-35 isn’t really a dog fighter as it’s not needed anymore. Long range, jamming and stealth is what it’s all about now.

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/russia-s-s-400-missile-system-gains-first-blood-in-ukraine-su-27-shot-down-150km-away-reports

 

[MrXxxx]

Somebody yesterday asked about BATS dropping recently, this may help to explain why:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/british-american-tobacco-ups-its-organigram-stake-curaleaf-slips-on-rumors/ar-AAUMMJ1?li=AAwnS0s&ocid=mailsignout

[BadAlchemy]

42 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

The Mighty Panther has opened up 25%!

And Hochschild up 21% today. ( I might have broken even on it). Is that the sound of scraping the bottom of the barrel for the last remaining bargains!

[MrXxxx]

27 minutes ago, arrow said:

Hope you're right, but it's gone too far, I think.

Looks at Polymetal! Looks like Polymetal is headed to its current dividend value or half. If it goes there, Buy it and it's paid off by May

Assuming the divi is honoured ; see my earlier posting today.

[ThoughtCriminal]

34 minutes ago, Transistor Man said:

An 11 deg C increase in average temperature is already baked in -- quite a claim. I'm not sure I believe that.

As ever, TM, you are far too polite.

 

The very idea of it is laughable bollocks.

 

Co2 is not, and never has been, a thermostat gas for climate. Not even when it was 10-20x higher than now.

 

 

 

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

As ever, TM, you are far too polite.

 

The very idea of it is laughable bollocks.

 

Co2 is not, and never has been, a thermostat gas for climate. Not even when it was 10-20x higher than now.

 

 

 

How dare you 

[Plan-b]

15 minutes ago, BadAlchemy said:

And Hochschild up 21% today. ( I might have broken even on it). Is that the sound of scraping the bottom of the barrel for the last remaining bargains!

Impressive, then I took a closer look, wow

[Heart's Ease]

 

He's back from hols.

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

 

He's back from hols.

PMs about to get monkey hammered, watch and learn

 

(Only messing I have a lot of time for David, but there is a solid correlation between tweets like this and a sudden period of lower prices )

[GoneDark]

41 minutes ago, Boon said:

You can buy Poly (and Evraz) on Freetrade... if it declines keep on resubmitting the order and it should go through. 

Bought poly on HL around 3pm so it is being sold.

[AlfredTheLittle]

Sentiment towards BP and Shell will surely change, wouldn't make sense now to have a windfall tax. 

[MrXxxx]

The UK will stop buying Russian oil by the end of 2022, ....will Ukraine still be there?...US just announced it will do it immediately, although they are a net exporter so have this 'luxury', and despite Biden using the press conference as an opportunity to 'blow smoke up his own a$$'.

[Plan-b]

47 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

I just checked on DOCTOR's holdings on the most recent audit (5 March). 183kg in Zurich, 95kg in London, 5kg NY, 24kg Toronto, 22kg Singapore.

Is it a particular location being drained, or even spread?

I'm really not sure, I haven't looked at the audit for a long time. At todays price that's over 11.5 Million. Seem to remember 13 Million drawdown on the early 2020 occasion. Wonder what they are a doctor in, Alchemy? 

[Plan-b]

12 minutes ago, Loki said:

PMs about to get monkey hammered, watch and learn

 

(Only messing I have a lot of time for David, but there is a solid correlation between tweets like this and a sudden period of lower prices )

Don't like it when it runs like this it aint natural 

 

[MrXxxx]

10 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

.

 

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, dnb24 said:

DB if you don’t mind would be interesting to hear your thought process on this. A number of other people (Napier especially) has hypothesised that despite raising rates they’ll be significantly behind inflation- and so propose house prices rising and not falling. No criticism of your work- it’s been the closer to anything I’ve seen- tbf you could/should produce a quarterly newsletter - your roadmap has been on the money especially compared to Alden/Hunter etc etc

Its all about liquidity ,there is more than enough in the US financial system,the market thinks the Fed is tightening into weakness,but im seeing thats wrong,they are tightening into strength.The macro setup is for them to be able to increase rates instead of QT and thats hugely bullish for inflation loving areas,very very bad for growth stocks.They will be behind inflation for most of the cycle,but they intend to be,its policy or they would QT instead.Its fuzzy at the moment,but its looking like the start of a credit cycle in the US,not the end of one.China is in no position to challenge the US yet,their banking system is under far more stress.House prices are going down inflation adjusted i think,but i dont do any work on them because i dont really care what they do,just cross market from the likely rates and inflation turning the screw.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

its looking like the start of a credit cycle in the US,not the end of one.

Is it still a credit deflation then?  (Its not you, it's me being thick and missing something  I assume consumer credit vs central banks pushing into infratrucutre etc)