Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Starsend]

23 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

That would make things interesting........

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

3 hours ago, moneyscam said:

....

I know, rather dramatic, but once you get it you won't forget it.

 

 

@moneyscam thanks for posting.

 

Guys, have you listened/watched Peter Zeihan's video interview?

 

Interesting, but terrifying at the same time!

 

'Russia is going to now take the whole enchilada' 

 

I never heard of this guy before, is he sensationalizing things just to help with his book sales? That was my take...

[BadAlchemy]

55 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I think a lot of people are about to find out what money actually is 

I am looking forward to an end to dog walking and dog 'daycare' as a business/service. Apologies to anyone here that uses that service but for me it represents all that is now degenerate about this once great country. When I no longer see people walking 10 dogs around and no more of those stupid Poochy Pampers vans driving around I will know we have perhaps turned a corner.

 

[CannonFodder]

53 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Remember when I said that in my experience Gazprom always honours contracts? These bondholders were just made whole. To the surprise of all, except oil and gas people who have dealt with them 

I don't know what cultural thing it is with them, but that's what they do. I wonder if the EU had signed enough contracts with them instead of screaming blue murder about spot prices would things be as bad as they are today? Wouldn't have stopped Putin's disgraceful invasion of course, he's clearly lost it, or is sick. But we could be bringing it to a head now without the threat of energy cutoff, because Gazprom will pump what they are contracted to.

Know some russian folk, they always follow through.

When he recognised the breakaway parts and said he would help them, I should have sold.

When Biden said they would invade, they said it was hysteria and ramblings of a madman, I dont think they actual said it was a lie. 

Even now it is a special military action not an invasion.

As you say, it is something cultural

 

[Funn3r]

On 06/03/2022 at 10:19, Castlevania said:

How much are you willing to lose?

Although I agree with @Huntysomething seems off with the Russian invasion. They seem to be running around in old tanks manned by new recruits. You compare that to footage from Syria and well something isn’t right.

I think the Russians are doing the "deck of cards" things used in Iraq, and other places before that. 

They already have their own list of high-value targets and they are going around collecting them one by one. The military equipment is to provide security for that operation, not to "win a war."

[stoobs]

Facebook (meta) share price now dropped 50% from peak in 6 months.

[desertorchid]

48 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

@moneyscam thanks for posting.

 

Guys, have you listened/watched Peter Zeihan's video interview?

 

Interesting, but terrifying at the same time!

 

'Russia is going to now take the whole enchilada' 

 

I never heard of this guy before, is he sensationalizing things just to help with his book sales? That was my take...

If he used the word "enchilada", I would hazard a guess that he he is not highly qualified on the subject

[Sugarlips]

Coal producer goes broke because of high coal prices, hmm....

 

 

[wherebee]

Interactive brokers now indicating that POLY can only be sold, not bid on.

I did get my small purchase 15 hours ago though.

[Mapper]

10 hours ago, moneyscam said:

 

Holy shit! That was cheery. Not.

Honestly, that is not a suitable thumbnail. They look like a low rent magic act in that one.

Needless to say he is not bullish on Russian equities.

Scariest bit was the food issues. Should be planting season for wheat, but that is not going to happen. Also, low yields due to lack of fertilizers. Prices are going to shoot up he reckons. People are going to starve.

[Virgil Caine]

8 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Sad day today, we sacked our gardener when he put his prices up 20%

 

He's trying to backtrack now but i suspect most of the pensioners he works for have told him to do one

 

I think a lot of people are about to find out what money actually is 

 

Demand destruction in operation.

This will be replicated across the economy.

[belfastchild]

Completely random this one but thought I'd share as its been bothering me.

I have a 3 mile walk i do at home some evenings. It uses the main road near the town.

Since lockdown ive noticed a few of the big roadside houses getting bought by gypos/pikeys. Horses heads on the gatepost, caravans on the drive, tarmac lorries out the back sort of thing.

At the weekend I noticed that all 4 or so of these houses had new garden walls. All about 2m high (fuck planning). These were substantial, not brick laid vertically with piers bit breeze block laid flat  sometimes laid flat on end so quite thick and deep. All on various forms of completion.

Don't know what I'm trying to say here but the gypos seem to be circling the wagons.

[wherebee]

33 minutes ago, Mapper said:

Holy shit! That was cheery. Not.

Honestly, that is not a suitable thumbnail. They look like a low rent magic act in that one.

Needless to say he is not bullish on Russian equities.

Scariest bit was the food issues. Should be planting season for wheat, but that is not going to happen. Prices are going to shoot up he reckons. People are going to starve.

notice the colours of the tops he is wearing.  UKR supporter.  

I predict, still, the idea of Putin crossing the borders into Poland or elsewhere is wrong.  If I am incorrect by one inch, that's my threshold for admitting I am wrong on the whole thing.

[BadAlchemy]

7 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Don't know what I'm trying to say here but the gypos seem to be circling the wagons.

Yes, we had to sell up some land recently when certain types began to spread themselves around. No respect for boundaries, other people's property, wildlife, land owner obligations, and certainly no planning permissions. Nobody 'in charge' is actually in charge anymore, so you either join them or get out of Dodge. 

(Sorry, dont want to go off topic and I know we have a Pikey thread, but relevant to macro perhaps in the sense of what are we going to be allowed to own/supported to own, or is it just a grim life in the 'Wild West' from here on).

[Lightscribe]

8 minutes ago, wherebee said:

notice the colours of the tops he is wearing.  UKR supporter.  

I predict, still, the idea of Putin crossing the borders into Poland or elsewhere is wrong.  If I am incorrect by one inch, that's my threshold for admitting I am wrong on the whole thing.

That’s my marker or should I say hope. If Putin takes Ukraine (and he will) but then proceeds to move further on to other countries then we are fucked. But that’s what exactly I expect him to do.

I have had that constant unsettled feeling for months now since the end of covid of what was what coming next, because they sure as hell hadn’t come this far to reverse back to pre 2020 now.

https://time.com/collection/great-reset/5900739/fix-economy-by-2023/

Again food shortages nicely laid out in the plan for 2022. Looks like another tick box for the article that so far called the election, vaccine and protests despite being written in October 2020.

 

[Calcutta]

7 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Coal producer goes broke because of high coal prices, hmm....

 

 

Funny, did a bit of Wikipeding after reading about coal on here. Found Peabody, saw they'd gone up a fair bit recently so figured I'd missed the boat. Then yesterday I was wondering why they'd crashed down so much. 

Unfortunatly my limited knowledge means I've no idea how to take this news. Is love to have a few k in the world's biggest coal mine for the next 20 years, but not of they're going to fail the day I buy them. 

[BadAlchemy]

25 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

https://time.com/collection/great-reset/5900739/fix-economy-by-2023/

Again food shortages nicely laid out in the plan for 2022. Looks like another tick box for the article that so far called the election, vaccine and protests despite being written in October 2020.

 

Orwell had 'every book has been rewritten'. Way too inefficient for this new lot. Like that article, they are writing their version of history even before it has had a chance to happen. Yes all the tick boxes and milestones are being met... but ascribed to climate change or greedy capitalism, where it is their own policies that are to blame. These people are deluded and very, very dangerous.

[geordie_lurch]

More from Javier regarding nickel 

And the following for context which he retweeted

 

[Castlevania]

20 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

More from Javier regarding nickel 

And the following for context which he retweeted

 

There was a discussion on Twitter yesterday that one of the largest producers of nickel in the world (apparently not Vale or Glencore) needed to find and were struggling to find US$5 billion in a margin call after nickel had exploded in price.

[Castlevania]

36 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

Funny, did a bit of Wikipeding after reading about coal on here. Found Peabody, saw they'd gone up a fair bit recently so figured I'd missed the boat. Then yesterday I was wondering why they'd crashed down so much. 

Unfortunatly my limited knowledge means I've no idea how to take this news. Is love to have a few k in the world's biggest coal mine for the next 20 years, but not of they're going to fail the day I buy them. 

It shouldn’t be a problem as long as they have the liquidity to post cash margin. They’ve forward sold some of their production at an agreed price and the price has since skyrocketed, so need to post cash to make up the value of the derivative to their trading counterparty. They’ll have a huge unrealised MTM loss. Once the contract expires they can simply deliver the coal at the agreed price. Plus they’ve only forward sold a small portion of their production so will be making serious money on anything sold at spot.

[Lightscribe]

3 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

There was a discussion on Twitter yesterday that one of the largest producers of nickel in the world (apparently not Vale or Glencore) needed to find and were struggling to find US$5 billion in a margin call after nickel had exploded in price.

Comex next. I don’t mind getting vaporised in a Nuclear hell fire if only I get to see JP Morgan go bust first.

[Noallegiance]

2 hours ago, Mapper said:

Holy shit! That was cheery. Not.

Honestly, that is not a suitable thumbnail. They look like a low rent magic act in that one.

Needless to say he is not bullish on Russian equities.

Scariest bit was the food issues. Should be planting season for wheat, but that is not going to happen. Also, low yields due to lack of fertilizers. Prices are going to shoot up he reckons. People are going to starve.

Thankfully we produce over 60% of our own food.

It'll be more expensive, but it's here already.

[Lightscribe]

https://www.sharecast.com/amp/news/news-and-announcements/fresnillo-fy-profits-revenue-rise-amid-higher-silver-prices--9355124.html
 

Should see another leg up in FRES today hopefully.

[M S E Refugee]

Everyday for the past couple weeks the DOCTOR who ever he is has been withdrawing hundreds of kilos of physical Gold and Silver as well as significant amounts of Platinum from Bullionvault.

This person or organisation seems pretty desperate to get hold of their Metal, the costs of withdrawing it from Bullionvault must be eye-watering plus there will be VAT on top for the Silver and Platinum.

[Plan-b]

7 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Everyday for the past couple weeks the DOCTOR who ever he is has been withdrawing hundreds of kilos of physical Gold and Silver as well as significant amounts of Platinum from Bullionvault.

This person or organisation seems pretty desperate to get hold of their Metal, the costs of withdrawing it from Bullionvault must be eye-watering plus there will be VAT on top for the Silver and Platinum.

Well spotted. I saw the same user name withdraw millions of pounds worth of gold just leading up to March 2020, and then coof happened not long after. Coincidence? who knows.