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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko

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geordie_lurch

Oil Surges Into 'Super-Backwardation' After OPEC+ Sticks To Production Plan, Shuns Biden's Demands

"In what one observer called "the fastest one yet" - the meeting lasted just 13 minutes, beating last month’s record for brevity - OPEC+ 23-nation coalition led by Saudi Arabia ratified an increase of 400,000 barrels a day on Wednesday, continuing the gradual restoration of output halted during the pandemic, according to delegate sources."

"Additionally, this has all sent WTI and Brent time-spreads into what is being called 'super-backwardation' as WTI M1-M6 spreads explode to record highs suggesting the tightness of current oil markets is becoming extreme..."

2022-03-02_05-05-13.jpg?itok=hTJPpUOU

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/oil-surges-super-backwardation-after-opec-sticks-production-plan-shuns-bidens-demands

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Just now, kibuc said:

Maybe it can tho, once £3000 is the new £1500.

Quite,though the lag with incomes will destroy the government.All roads lead to massive investment,or collapse.Im sure red tape will be removed in the budget for pension funds.

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Democorruptcy
3 hours ago, Siggy said:

Looks like Poly will leave the FTSE 100 to be replaced most likely by the Scottish Play :ph34r:

Samantha's predictions on the 25th Feb but that seems a long time ago now!

http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php

Quick summary of the rules

https://www.everydayinvestor.co.uk/ftse-quarterly-review-stock-market-promotion-relegation/

 

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1 hour ago, Bear Hug said:

Polymetal, Evraz etc is like catching a falling knife this morning. I place an order at minus 10% of current price and it fills few min later. 

OK, exaggerated slightly, but - 5% maybe. 

Tiny amounts on  trading 212

Screenshot_20220302_113658.jpg

Mad man here.

See my other post, I put in 1k from some of my Oily shares see if it plays out over the next years as a multibanger,

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sancho panza

oil crossed the $100 mark in Feb 08.Peaked in July 08 .

an entry for the 'history doesn't repeat but sude does rhyme' section TM M.Twain

image.thumb.png.38ca1d70aec0d7b1b437fef5f40e1c15.png

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Noallegiance
3 minutes ago, Sidd said:

It is clear certain now from this that the uncertainty itself is becoming rather uncertain

xD

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2 minutes ago, Sidd said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/02/fed-chair-powell-notes-highly-uncertain-ukraine-impact-but-says-rate-hikes-are-still-coming.html

 

It is clear now from this that the uncertainty itself is becoming rather uncertain

My roadmap was telling me they needed to increase rates but still print.I spent quite a while considering that because it was leftfield even for my roadmap,but it looks like those signals might be right after all.Great for inflation shares horrific for house prices.

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15 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My roadmap was telling me they needed to increase rates but still print.I spent quite a while considering that because it was leftfield even for my roadmap,but it looks like those signals might be right after all.Great for inflation shares horrific for house prices.

If the market has digested the expected rate hikes and easy money announced to 'combat' the Russia commodity/finance constipation situation it would lay the foundations for gold and stockmarket to take off.

Gold was held back the last 3 months due to the accelerating tightening. I was surprised how little it fell.

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Democorruptcy
47 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Quite,though the lag with incomes will destroy the government.All roads lead to massive investment,or collapse.Im sure red tape will be removed in the budget for pension funds.

I posted about the insurance 'big bang' last month

 

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1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

NOT SHARE ADVICE but Johnson Matthey is another that's just popped up on my very interested list, 4% dividend, seems to be finding strength in recent days after being truly hated for a while.

Interesting as mine too (:ph34r:) but I didn't like the company fundamentals.

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3 hours ago, Craig said:

Yep, bought some POLY last night then was immediately struck by the fear I'd bought Polyfilla or some shite.

Fortunately it seems legit...

You'd have probally better spent the money on Polyfilla :)

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49 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My roadmap was telling me they needed to increase rates but still print.I spent quite a while considering that because it was leftfield even for my roadmap,but it looks like those signals might be right after all.Great for inflation shares horrific for house prices.

I posted that's what some guy/gal was saying to George Gammon a while back.  Smoke and mirrors.  Feet on both pedals, like some sort of racing car driver!  Watch what they do, all of it!

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Yadda yadda yadda
1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Quite,though the lag with incomes will destroy the government.All roads lead to massive investment,or collapse.Im sure red tape will be removed in the budget for pension funds.

Does the Government even understand that a vast swathe of the population cannot afford gas and leccy up £1,500, council tax up £100, food up 10, 15, 20% with more to come? Petrol too. These rich bastards spend more on wallpaper.

They're pushing towards lamppost and rope territory. Some very nice old lampposts in Westminster that could take the weight of even the fattest of fatcats.

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3 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Does the Government even understand that a vast swathe of the population cannot afford gas and leccy up £1,500, council tax up £100, food up 10, 15, 20% with more to come? Petrol too. These rich bastards spend more on wallpaper.

They're pushing towards lamppost and rope territory. Some very nice old lampposts in Westminster that could take the weight of even the fattest of fatcats.

I think their plan is for people to burn effigies of Putin to keep warm while the "rich bastards" buy the dip!  It'll probably work, it usually does.

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Yadda yadda yadda
4 minutes ago, Harley said:

I think their plan is for people to burn effigies of Putin to keep warm while the "rich bastards" buy the dip!  It'll probably work, it usually does.

Do you want to quote on materials for a Papier mache Putin? I need to work out if that is cheaper than gas.

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1 hour ago, geordie_lurch said:

Oil Surges Into 'Super-Backwardation' After OPEC+ Sticks To Production Plan, Shuns Biden's Demands

"In what one observer called "the fastest one yet" - the meeting lasted just 13 minutes, beating last month’s record for brevity - OPEC+ 23-nation coalition led by Saudi Arabia ratified an increase of 400,000 barrels a day on Wednesday, continuing the gradual restoration of output halted during the pandemic, according to delegate sources."

"Additionally, this has all sent WTI and Brent time-spreads into what is being called 'super-backwardation' as WTI M1-M6 spreads explode to record highs suggesting the tightness of current oil markets is becoming extreme..."

2022-03-02_05-05-13.jpg?itok=hTJPpUOU

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/oil-surges-super-backwardation-after-opec-sticks-production-plan-shuns-bidens-demands

Anyone's guess where bp shares are likely going with all this noise?  Could make a few quid today and buy some solid shiny stuff.

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CannonFodder
3 hours ago, Harley said:

I'm starting to buy the idea of Chinese fingerprints on this, with their control over much of the Western leaders and pushing Russia towards them and co.  That was the West's biggest geo-political mistake for a very long time, so much so you have to wonder.

China is by far the biggest winner as russia and us take damage

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leonardratso

meanwhile tga powers ahead, sold some of that and shoved it at the japs, rmgs been a dog last few days so flogged some and fed it into the falling BASF for shits and giggles.

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HousePriceMania

Bit of a post for the people who are not investing gods....

 

I've been using Interactive Brokers for 4/5 months now ( was recommended by a bloke on twitter I follow and chat to ) and just want to give it a big thumbs up.

I've had a basic share dealing account with a bank for a number of years and it really is basic. 

IB is a whole new ball game and makes it easier to stay on top of your investments, get better prices, invest on margin, short stuff, move money into other currencies ( i have swiss/japan/poland/NZ/US/Sweden currencies ), you can get access to commodities/options/bonds/futures/etc

The reports are handy, I can see I'm heavily weighed in oil/currency, mostly in Europe with some exposure to Asia and South America.

I can only compare it to the crappy bank share dealing account I have but I wish I'd changed over years ago, I feel I'd be a lot better off.

 

 

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