Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

In other news, an absolutely giant oil discovery by Total in Namibia announced today, to go with the recent Shell one. A new province opening up. I think I pointed out here way back that Total were using the bear market to get busy with exploration studies. This is the result, congratulations. No sign of BP, they laid off their explorers.

 

 

 

 TotalEnergies SE

44.83 EUR-4.99 (-10.01%)past 5 days

1 Mar, 18:45 GMT • Disclaimer

LON: TTE

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Majorpain said:

If anyone missed this, its an excellent summary of how fragile the current system really is.

Damned fine way to start thinking about a possible end game.

[Agent ZigZag]

Guiness global energy fund looks very interesting.
Thanks for the heads up What is the full ticker name as there a few on Hargreaves’s

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Animal Spirits said:

"What they had done was turn politics into a strange theatre, where nobody knew what was true or what was fake any longer"

0 - 4.45

Funny thing is it was the Russians that came up with that idea.  The guy's out of favour there now though!

[Loki]

Poly yield/divi showing as 36.41% and Gazprom as 44.56% on HL 
  

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

They're not useless and I won't give investment advice! Ive tried to be very careful on here to just say what I think and let you make up your own minds. I'm on record as saying I prefer other majors, but I think BP is fine in a basket. They might be the next one to pull a rabbit out if a hat, who knows. I'd just go with the guiness global energy fund and go mend the fence!

Fence you say? im your man  ,iv got my eyes on the back one now,i chopped a whole tree down today,it had died and tangled into the fence,hell of a job that was.Il do anything to get those big ladders out.

[Starsend]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Be careful with those, they have time decay. SILJ doesn't. But yes, a nice day overall.

 

They do, and it's always been a bit opaque as to hom much. I bought QQQS a month ago, only recommended for short term holds but a bit of an experiment for me.

The decay so far seems pretty extreme (couple of percent over a month). I'll sell it soon, junk really, not sure of the point of it.

[Noallegiance]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

In other news, an absolutely giant oil discovery by Total in Namibia announced today, to go with the recent Shell one. A new province opening up. I think I pointed out here way back that Total were using the bear market to get busy with exploration studies. This is the result, congratulations. No sign of BP, they laid off their explorers.

It's stuff like this and other anecdotes about BP that makes me consider sacking them off and splitting the capital between Shell and other commodity div payers.

I'm uncomfortable with this level of incompetence from people I expect to know better.

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I'm uncomfortable with this level of incompetence from people I expect to know better.

Same here, they are one of my bigger holdings I expected to hold for years and years (And add to) but what I am reading is pathetic

[christh]

Just now, Loki said:

Poly yield/divi showing as 36.41% and Gazprom as 44.56% on HL 
  

Re: poly and friends, it's reassuring to see that Rick Rule has similar testicilar volume  / more value investing optimism than sense like we mad cultists.

Russian stock chat begins around 11 mins, fellow crackheads. Then onto beneficiaries if Russian energy gets banned (uranium from the frogs, etc.), how gold might not be the place to be in this war (Russia having loads of the stuff).

[Siggy]

14 minutes ago, Loki said:

Poly yield/divi showing as 36.41% and Gazprom as 44.56% on HL 
  

Evraz caught my eye again today,  yield of 60 something percent at one point and a fractional p/e (<1). If I had ready funds in my ISA would have ended up buying some to add to my 3k+ and growing loss on Evraz/ Poly.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, christh said:

Re: poly and friends, it's reassuring to see that Rick Rule has similar testicilar volume  / more value investing optimism than sense like we mad cultists.

Russian stock chat begins around 11 mins, fellow crackheads. Then onto beneficiaries if Russian energy gets banned (uranium from the frogs, etc.), how gold might not be the place to be in this war (Russia having loads of the stuff).

Yes I watched that earlier, Rick Rule is normally a good watch!  That Pallisades video upthread was excellent too

[ThoughtCriminal]

The response to Russia from centrica etc really underscores that were dealing with hysteria now.

 

Gazprom and Poly didn't suddenly become shit companies. Demand for their products didn't suddenly disappear.

 

The BRIC countries have made clear that they don't give a flying fuck about Ukraine, and Mexico are the latest to tell America they're not interested.

 

[leonardratso]

T BAILEY FUND SERV TB GUINNESS GBL ENGY I GBP

i think ive got the income one here, 30 odd pence a share/unit.

 

https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/t/tb-guinness-global-energy-class-i-accumulation

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Cawn said:

Do what Dark art Blackrock do not what our pathetic cabinet say.

Totally agree with you pal. Both on my radar. 

 

I'm sure the companies will do well, but will shareholders benefit?  

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

Poly yield/divi showing as 36.41% and Gazprom as 44.56% on HL 
  

That'll help with inflation...now, if only the war would end tomorrow....

[ThoughtCriminal]

7 minutes ago, Loki said:

I'm sure the companies will do well, but will shareholders benefit?  

Over the medium to long-term I think they will.

 

Seems to me that we're entering a new cold war. Russia is pivoting from Europe to Asia, and south America,which will take time, but let's be honest, they are the future.

 

We'll be sat shivering in our houses with fucking heat pumps and an electric car we can't afford to charge 

[reformed nice guy]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

Poly yield/divi showing as 36.41% and Gazprom as 44.56% on HL 
  

Only downside is that I will need to turn up to the Russian embassy to pick up my 18.7 million ruble  (£45.40) dividend and you need to bring your own plastic bag. You need to say the code word to a babushka round the back since your sanction busting

[HousePriceMania]

9 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Only downside is that I will need to turn up to the Russian embassy to pick up my 18.7 million ruble  (£45.40) dividend and you need to bring your own plastic bag. You need to say the code word to a babushka round the back since your sanction busting

I support Ukraine....

https://ukraine-brides.net/blog/propper-time-visit-ukraine/

[HousePriceMania]

No more boom and bust Gordon told me.

 

[Sugarlips]

Every PM investor right now

[Yadda yadda yadda]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-starting-fail-buyers-balk-buying-russian-oil-despite-record-discounts

Zerohedge so not necessarily 100% accurate.

Un/intended consequences or a miscalculation could blow everything up. How convenient it would be to blame a massive crash and recession on the Russians invading their neighbours rather than over a decade of profligacy and money printing.

[HousePriceMania]

 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

Just read the last 27 pages here, as I have been away for a couple of days (no-internet) what a LAUGH!

 

Open my email acc, and WTF got an email from HL stating they bought  PLOY  ...yet i cancelled it last thursday when they couldn't get the price i put in for, i'm SURE of this cancel even though the platform was jittery.

 

I've emailed them, and let you guys know what happens, but just to give you guys the heads up, if you cancel an order - i would double check it now, and make sure in the transactions you can see the "cancelled order" well pissed off with HL at the mo :-(

 

[JMD]

9 hours ago, Harley said:

Tough love incoming.  I've been thinking about that comment.  It misses the point, the elephant in the room.  The behaviour is merely a mirror.  This has become a traders market.  I said this a while back, echoing what the smart guys were saying.  Passive is over and active is back.  It'll be a shock to all, hopefully earlier here than others.  Sarah Beeny and co made money on houses as much because the market was going up.  Easy if you weren't completely stupid or hated by god.  Now we'll see who has the smarts, training, and aptitude.  One reason I've been working on the technicals, etc and have a new respect for the likes of Tim Price and his move to trend trading.  Most of what I do has a reason!  I fear some here (like me in my younger days) has as much technical depth as a dart board which has been fine to date but now are either going to be very lucky or very fecked.  Lazy and lucky, put the hours in and earn it, or get out of the game!

Funny you should mention Tim Price, discovered him a year or so ago and his Price Value partners firm and his State of the Markets podcasts have been a bit of an inspiration for me. The point you make for active trading is a good one. I don't have technical trading skills so have decided to begin 'very gently' by using a momentum investing strategy. As you say, Tim Price's fund/service uses trend investing, and which I believe is similar to momentum. I think he operates equal allocations to equities/PM's/bond debt(?)/trend investing, which apart from the trend investing is all medium/long term buy and hold.