Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[nirvana]

last post and I'm off promise lol but this guy is blody ace! give him more subs please

 

[Castlevania]

17 minutes ago, nirvana said:

Intrepid was up earlier, hasn't been that high since 2015 

PS getting distracted, please ban me 

Sold a hundred and put it all on black (Polymetal). 

Crazy to think one share in Intrepid would buy 15 in Polymetal. 

[TNS]

44 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I think I know what happened here

Jesus, you'd need yoga skills to kiss that whilst riding it 

[HousePriceMania]

Could someone tell Motley Fool to shut the fuck up ?

 

[HousePriceMania]

 

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

8 minutes ago, TNS said:

Jesus, you'd need yoga skills to kiss that whilst riding it 

Depends what you're kissing.

[Errol]

Buying more PHAG today. Silver is going to rocket at some point - well past $50 an ounce and on to $100+.

[Majorpain]

10 hours ago, BadAlchemy said:

Luke Gromen - "US can't sanction Russian energy without risking systemic collapse"

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:31 – Russia’s Options
7:55 – Forced Solutions
10:14 – China & Europe
16:06 – Russia’s Gold
20:37 – Bond Market Risks
24:57 – LBMA & Comex Risk
27:29 – Scenarios
35:38 – Weaponizing Bitcoin
38:26 – Fed & EuroDollar
43:30 – Taper/Tighten?
47:20 – Gold in 2019
49:58 – Trudeau & Miners
53:53 – Crypto & Fiat Risk
58:05 – Hedging Options
1:01:55- Wrap Up

If anyone missed this, its an excellent summary of how fragile the current system really is.

[TNS]

1 minute ago, Majorpain said:

If anyone missed this, its an excellent summary of how fragile the current system really is.

Watched it earlier, highly recommend 

[kibuc]

Big boys leading the charge today, which is quite common for PM rallies. Juniors join later, but much more violently... if the rally persists for long enough.

[Sidd]

1 hour ago, nirvana said:

BRO! that is one of my favorite songs & vids! have a virtual suck on my bong......

if you don't know me well enough I always advocate a stop loss, good luck next time

Hehe was Nirvana obsessed when i was young. I always used to go into deep thought when listening to it, really made me feel better when I had a shit day and wished i could have seen them and Kurt Kobain live had he lived longer and continued his legacy. The unplugged recording were even better.

[Sidd]

31 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Big boys leading the charge today, which is quite common for PM rallies. Juniors join later, but much more violently... if the rally persists for long enough.

I am so heavy in miners thay despite losing 5.5k in a week im overall up. I hope it continues. What is your sell out plan @kibuc, do you think this will sustain?

[Bobthebuilder]

5 minutes ago, Sidd said:

Hehe was Nirvana obsessed when i was young. I always used to go into deep thought when listening to it, really made me feel better when I had a shit day and wished i could have seen them and Kurt Kobain live had he lived longer and continued his legacy. The unplugged recording were even better.

I listened to them through the loading in doors backstage in Newcastle around 1991, it was sold out but the security and road crew let a few of us round the back. I had a ticket for Brixton academy for the In utero tour, well we all know what happened, Kurt put a cartridge through his head 2 days before the gig.

Probably the last true great rock n roll bands. I still miss him to this day.

[Bobthebuilder]

3 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Invest in your North Sea gas business then.

I saw Kwarteng banging on about fracking yesterday, not a clue. There is a ton of gas still in the North Sea at the right price. I'd say most of it is run on economics of c. 50p or 60p/therm, and is marginally uneconomic. We know where it is, it's all been mapped, theres even a kind of brochure published every year with the top 300 or so targets, which no one touches. Current price is 350p/therm, but banks (or retarded CFOs) won't let us increase price decks. All Kwarteng has to do is put a floor on price at about 100p/therm, well below current prices. One stroke of a pen, and you'll see the biggest drilling campaign in decades, because it removes economic risk. And the govt gets domestic supply in return.

This would be possible politically if they had an honest conversation with the public, the only risk to the public purse is a crash in gas prices. Yeah right.

But it's not going to happen, is it? Fwiw I put a flea in the ear of some senior people about it today. We talk to govt regularly, but they just don't listen.

Sunak mentioned North Sea gas a few weeks ago.

[Bobthebuilder]

3 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

That's fine, put the in a floor price and let's get on with it before everyone retires.

Do you think it's a possibility? Who would do well out of this, Shell, BP?

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Do you think it's a possibility? Who would do well out of this, Shell, BP?

Bridlington would do very well,cheap huge ex holiday let building would be a very good investment.Can get train as well.

[reformed nice guy]

Next Gazprom ladders:

0.25, 0.05, 0.005

[kibuc]

49 minutes ago, Sidd said:

I am so heavy in miners thay despite losing 5.5k in a week im overall up. I hope it continues. What is your sell out plan @kibuc, do you think this will sustain?

As always, there will be tons of volatility, and I also suspect there might be a short-term dump once the war starts nearing its resolution. There's a narrative that gold is rallying because of the invasion, even though it's been on a steady climb since fall. I'd like to think this is it, this is the rally I was waiting for and I think there's lots of reasons to believe in it, but events like this war (or the infamous #silversqueeze) can actually slow things down by introducing volatility that skews the narrative and erodes trust in the rally, which takes time to return. Anyway, I didn't sell when silver was at $30 with inflation barely ticking, I sure as hell won't be selling at $25, $30 or $35 for that matter with inflation out of control and Fed trapped. I'm trimming some of the fronrunners as I go (Santacruz today), but only to add (or initiate positions) in the troubled ones.

This is a long-winded way of saying "I can't know for sure but I think this is the one to hold through ups and down until we see numbers never seen before".

[Yadda yadda yadda]

21 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

In other news, an absolutely giant oil discovery by Total in Namibia announced today, to go with the recent Shell one. A new province opening up. I think I pointed out here way back that Total were using the bear market to get busy with exploration studies. This is the result, congratulations. No sign of BP, they laid off their explorers.

Interesting

https://www.namibian.com.na/110307/read/Total-also-discovers-oil-in-Namibia

[Animal Spirits]

7 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Isn't it amazing? It's as if a switch was flicked and it's left everyone's mind instantly.

"What they had done was turn politics into a strange theatre, where nobody knew what was true or what was fake any longer"

0 - 4.45

[Sugarlips]

34 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Thanks Kibuc, I value your input on miners. I'm yolo on them, and have been for months. Sibanye and Harmony as ever have been great the last while. And Anglogold Ashanti and New Gold for that matter. You don't really hear about these names anywhere, except from here and @DurhamBorns orginal recommendations.

Nice to see AGQ (2x Silver ETF) running faster than SILJ 

Lets hope silver can be set free without having WW3 🤷‍♂️

Either way today was a good day

 

[Bobthebuilder]

35 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

This is the result, congratulations. No sign of BP, they laid off their explorers.

Quoting you Mr Prod, but asking the thread hive mind really. I am still in profit with BP, is it worth just selling the whole lot off if they have become that useless?

[23rdian]

4 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Short tracker

Why are the likes of Carillion still in there when they helped kill it some time ago?

[23rdian]

30 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Quoting you Mr Prod, but asking the thread hive mind really. I am still in profit with BP, is it worth just selling the whole lot off if they have become that useless?

I sold all my BP the other day to take profit as I was worried about them losing the ruskies. Do want them back in the near future though.

[Bobthebuilder]

4 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

They're not useless and I won't give investment advice! Ive tried to be very careful on here to just say what I think and let you make up your own minds. I'm on record as saying I prefer other majors, but I think BP is fine in a basket. They might be the next one to pull a rabbit out if a hat, who knows. I'd just go with the guiness global energy fund and go mend the fence!

I like Guinness global, currently about 50% on that. Have thought over the last 18 months or so that I should take profits from the majors and just add it in.

I never take anything on this forum as advice.

Thank you for your thoughts, Mr Prod.