Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[HousePriceMania]

REPSOL saving my portfolio this week

 

Market Summary > Repsol SA

11.97 EUR+0.50 (4.36%)past 5 days

1 Mar, 15:57 CET • Disclaimer

BME: REP

[stoobs]

Found this whilst randomly digging around earlier for a bit of context.

It shows the timeline of Russia in its various guises over the past thousand plus years.

You can change into English in the bottom right corner.

https://histography.ru/

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Pip321 said:

The veterans are right that this has become a traders forum but this volatility attracts that sentiment.

Tough love incoming.  I've been thinking about that comment.  It misses the point, the elephant in the room.  The behaviour is merely a mirror.  This has become a traders market.  I said this a while back, echoing what the smart guys were saying.  Passive is over and active is back.  It'll be a shock to all, hopefully earlier here than others.  Sarah Beeny and co made money on houses as much because the market was going up.  Easy if you weren't completely stupid or hated by god.  Now we'll see who has the smarts, training, and aptitude.  One reason I've been working on the technicals, etc and have a new respect for the likes of Tim Price and his move to trend trading.  Most of what I do has a reason!  I fear some here (like me in my younger days) has as much technical depth as a dart board which has been fine to date but now are either going to be very lucky or very fecked.  Lazy and lucky, put the hours in and earn it, or get out of the game!

[Loki]

7 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Blurb has promise? You might not have invested enough?

 

 

Is your last name Wood?

[Democorruptcy]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

 

Is your last name Wood?

No.

This might have potential for a classic escape price chase.

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I think some on here are being a bit hard on themselves for "bad" buys with poly etc.

 

In this inflationary environment doing nothing and sitting in cash isn't really an option, so you have to do something and that means that sometimes you're going to get things wrong. Maybe very wrong.

 

Take solace in knowing that 95% of the country are utter fucking imbeciles with Ukraine flags on their profiles because the media told them to. A week ago they couldn't have found Kiev on a map, and they certainly didn't give a flying fucking about Ukrainians slaughtering women and children with Grad rockets in the Donbas for the past 7 years.

Agree BUT cash hasn't deflated by 20% since yesterday, POLY has!

[DoINeedOne]

Oh for fuck sake, Im done

 

 

 

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

One day they will crash the Dow and S&P. Until then it is a bubble. The problem is inflation. Go all in and get wrecked if you time your exit wrong. Stay out and get wrecked by inflation. 

You will own nothing and you will be a violent revolutionary, perhaps.

I'm thinking reduce North American and European exposure. Pick up South America, Japan, global commods, telcos and ciggies.

Gonna think a bit more...

Just to be clear, using my "burning building" metaphor, it'll need a "controlled" demolition at some point.  That's what they always have to do.  You can take that to the bank.  Or, er, could have!  So what have folk increasingly been doing in since 2008?  Me, a bit of a slow start but I've been running hard playing catch up after a"come to Jesus" moment.

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Isn't it amazing? It's as if a switch was flicked and it's left everyone's mind instantly.

Well, that's what Boris is hoping.

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

No.

This might have potential for a classic escape price chase.

That's my hope but not my expectation (For the immediate future at least)

(But feel free to use me as a Gartman indicator given my POLY/Gazprom holdings!)

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

No,i want more exposure across the board but not sure yet how to structure it.That trust is a nice opening.

I wondered if you had a specific slant.   Yep, I already have the VJPN ETF but recently bought JFJ .  Not sure why as it's also go a rubbish yield which it shouldn't given what's available in the market.  I think I'll just grow my share holdings.  Japan is a nice place for the old fashioned value investor who cares about company fundamentals.  It's not hard!

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Pip321 said:

The Dow is doing my head in a bit.

The US markets seem to defy all reason most recently and indeed historically over the past few years.

It will be interesting if the Dow plummeted what the reaction would be by the average American….

As I said before I am in a mix of horror over what is physically happening and fascinated by how this pan out financially for West v East.

The US were down the toilet but it is possible this is an act of genius by the West….or we will be speaking Russian (or Chinese) by the end of the year.

The veterans are right that this has become a traders forum but this volatility attracts that sentiment.

Picking the long term investments in this market relies on the basics taught throughout this thread and also ensuring the geography in the long term is factored in….and that is dependant upon an outcome we don’t know.

So playing it safe is probably the wisest move….although I am tempted by a little flutter for entertainment value.😉🤦🏻‍♂️

Prediction this afternoon. US told how great their economy is, how the Russians are crumbling and the Dow up a few hundred points making companies worth 1000 x earnings 🤦🏻‍♂️

I do disagree that this thread has suddenly become a traders forum.                                                                                              Ok a certain Russian gold miner and a certain Russian oil company have over recent days been much discussed. And I suspect that if there was such a thing as a Russian telco, it too would have been under similar spot light. But imo all this is mainly because - and it has been so since the very beginnings of the thread - that PMs/energy/telcos have been and remain THE inflation stock darlings of the thread (infact individual pm/energy stocks and others have sporadically previously been discussed, sometimes at length). Moreover, most posts are discussing buying to hold, not to sell/trade. Plus I think there is also a sense that there is a potential macro-inflection occuring, maybe even becoming the trigger for the fabled market meltup, all wrapped into the whole Russia Ukraine war saga mess.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Cawn said:

Link

BlackRock Inc. is suspending the creation of new shares in an exchange-traded fund tracking Russian stocks, effectively stopping inflows to the product as Wall Street grapples with the fallout from the war in Ukraine.

The creation of shares -- the process by which new cash enters an ETF -- in the $105 million iShares MSCI Russia ETF (ticker ERUS) will be “temporarily suspended” until further notice, BlackRock said in a press statement on Tuesday. Buying and selling of shares will still be available on the secondary market, it said.

“It’s essentially a closed-end fund now,” said Athanasios Psarofagis, a Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst. “The silver lining is that it’s still trading so clients could still get money out, but at a more uncertain price.”

BlackRock’s move comes as money managers of all stripes race to get to grips with the blizzard of sanctions placed on Russia in response to President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The Moscow stock exchange was closed for a second day on Tuesday as Russia reels from the measures, with some saying the country has become “uninvestable.” Foreign-listed shares of Russian companies have plunged.

ERUS has dropped over 50% in the past week.

As was saying so long ago (there's even a thread somewhere!), these ETF things have never been stress tested.  Well, to be correct, they were once when the underwriter went bust and I took a hit on that (then) ETFS commodity ETF.  How many ETF holders ever read the prospectus?  I'll never say never, just know what you're dealing with and plan accordingly.

[kibuc]

1 minute ago, JMD said:

I do disagree that this thread has become a traders forum.                                                                                                                            A certain Russian gold miner and a certain Russian oil company have over recent days been much discussed. And I suspect that if there was such a thing as a Russian Telco, it too would similarly have been under the spot light. But imo all this is mainly because - and it has been so since the very beginnings of the thread - that PMs/energy/telcos have been and remain THE inflation stock darlings of the thread (and individual pm/energy stocks and others were discussed at length until couple years ago). Moreover, most posts are discussing buying to hold, not to sell/trade. Plus I think there is also a sense that there is a potential macro-inflection occuring, maybe even becoming the trigger for the fabled market meltup, all wrapped into the whole Russia Ukraine war saga mess.

I second that, Gazprom (which is dying an absolute death today, flirting with a 0 handle) and Poly represent sectors that have been widely recognized in this thread as the places to be for this decade. They come with extreme risks, which are reflected in their price action, but the question is, as always, whether the market is right or not, and how can we benefit from it. Are the risks truly as dire, or is it an overreaction and a buying opportunity. It's no different to discussing, say, Kuya Silver and their current price in the context of last year's Peruvian elections, trying to assess whether market reaction to pit wall collapse at The One And Only Panther is overblown or figuring out how affected will BP & Shell be by the green craze. For us to win, someone else needs to be wrong, or at least less right than us.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

HARL up 10% today...get it while it's cheap...

 

No div, no play.

[kibuc]

1 minute ago, kibuc said:

I second that, Gazprom (which is dying an absolute death today, flirting with a 0 handle)

It was 1.18 as I started typing that post and 0.57 by the time I reached the end...

[janch]

Caught up with you lot at last......please could you slow down a bit?

Am I the only one who's thought to buy some IBTL?  I would have bought a while back but didn't have the cash to spare then.  My thinking is that people rush to safety when there's a war on.  Also the US 10 yr  is at 1.743 when only a few days ago it was around 1.9ish so everyone else is also thinking the same.

Sometimes I like to go with the herd especially when I've been a bit late to the party.  That approach has paid off with CNA (thereI named it) as I bought just after it began to take off and it's done me proud so far.

I have just made one boo-boo though as I sold BAE after it shot up on Friday only to see it shoot up some more since then.  My best at the moment is K&S ag and I think I may need to top-slice that one.

You can keep your POLY.  It's too risky for me.  I also like Japan and made some good gains in JFJ over the summer 2020 and I sold it as the price turned down in early 2021.

[HousePriceMania]

I knew it was all too good to be true.

 

Who are the American's at war with, us ?

[Don Coglione]

1 hour ago, Don Coglione said:

More chance of getting my money back on Gazprom and Polymetal!

Actually, scratch that!

[23rdian]

7 minutes ago, janch said:

Caught up with you lot at last......please could you slow down a bit?

Am I the only one who's thought to buy some IBTL?  I would have bought a while back but didn't have the cash to spare then.  My thinking is that people rush to safety when there's a war on.  Also the US 10 yr  is at 1.743 when only a few days ago it was around 1.9ish so everyone else is also thinking the same.

Sometimes I like to go with the herd especially when I've been a bit late to the party.  That approach has paid off with CNA (thereI named it) as I bought just after it began to take off and it's done me proud so far.

I have just made one boo-boo though as I sold BAE after it shot up on Friday only to see it shoot up some more since then.  My best at the moment is K&S ag and I think I may need to top-slice that one.

You can keep your POLY.  It's too risky for me.  I also like Japan and made some good gains in JFJ over the summer 2020 and I sold it as the price turned down in early 2021.

I have some IBTL but it doesn't seem to do very much at all.

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I tried way back and found some info which I posted here back in the day (but no-one was interested!). 

Just because I don't click 'Informative', it doesn't mean that I am not interested...often I don't understand the point so go away and do some reading before clicking...ultimately I then forget to return and click! :-)

[Harley]

9 minutes ago, janch said:

Caught up with you lot at last......please could you slow down a bit?

Am I the only one who's thought to buy some IBTL?  I would have bought a while back but didn't have the cash to spare then.  My thinking is that people rush to safety when there's a war on.  Also the US 10 yr  is at 1.743 when only a few days ago it was around 1.9ish so everyone else is also thinking the same.

Sometimes I like to go with the herd especially when I've been a bit late to the party.  That approach has paid off with CNA (thereI named it) as I bought just after it began to take off and it's done me proud so far.

I have just made one boo-boo though as I sold BAE after it shot up on Friday only to see it shoot up some more since then.  My best at the moment is K&S ag and I think I may need to top-slice that one.

You can keep your POLY.  It's too risky for me.  I also like Japan and made some good gains in JFJ over the summer 2020 and I sold it as the price turned down in early 2021.

I own.  Part of diversification (class and currency).  Bonds may prove to be rubbish but they have their uses.  Maybe for one last time.  What's interesting is whether to hide in the long or short end of the curve.  Which will take the brunt of rising rates (not that I ever expected that talk to amount to much given the realities)?

[Harley]

12 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I knew it was all too good to be true.

 

Who are the American's at war with, us ?

Feck, I put a limit sell order on this week.  I only had 2% to go to break even!

PS:  Maybe it got triggered, hence the fall.  Big boy is me!

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

 

@Yellow_Reduced_Stickerhas been outed 

Does it mention he's living in regret because he bought the Scottish Share ? 

What a 'Crock o $hite'..obviously he is clueless about food and healthy eating in the first place, and secondly, he's not a DOSBODS member!

[CannonFodder]

1 hour ago, Don Coglione said:

More chance of getting my money back on Gazprom and Polymetal!

Rather buy ukrainian shares of kiev property next to military bases than Harl